This is the third in a series of list stories looking back at the great Dodger moments of 2025.
Previous stories:
Top 10: The longest home runs by the Dodgers in 2025
10 memorable Dodger defensive plays from 2025
by Megan Garcia
Over the course of a season, there were numerous big hits. But quantifiably, these were the biggest.
You know many of them.
The reason they are on this list is because they are the hits that swung the win probability in the Dodgers’ favor the most during the 2025 year.
Win Probability Added (WPA) is a statistic Baseball Reference uses to measure a player’s impact in their team’s game-winning chance with each play.
This is a look back at some of the most game-changing hits of the season in order of hits with the highest win probability.
1. Freddie Freeman’s walk-off single against the Twins
Date: July 23
Win probability added (WPA): 71.8%
Game Impact: The Dodgers trailed the Twins by one run entering the bottom of the ninth. The bases were loaded when Freeman lined a single to left field against Griffin Jax, allowing Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani to score.
The Twins had at one point in the ninth inning a 95.3% win probability. Freeman’s swing had the biggest change in win probability for a Dodger hit all season.
2. Teoscar Hernández’s three-run homer against the Phillies
Date: Oct. 4
WPA: 48.2%
Game Impact: The Dodgers chipped away at Philadelphia’s 3–0 lead in Game 1 of the National League Division Series. Teoscar Hernández’s three-run home run in the seventh gave the Dodgers a 5–3 lead. The LA bullpen recorded three shutout innings after the homer. The Dodgers took a 1–0 series lead with the win.
3. Andy Pages’ ninth-inning home run against the Phillies
Date: Sept. 15
WPA: 46.7%
Game Impact: Andy Pages’ solo home run against Phillies closer Jhoan Duran tied the score at 5–5 as the Dodgers worked their way back into the game. It was his 25th homer of the season. It was the first home run on a curveball that Duran allowed in the regular season. The Dodgers, though, lost the game 6–5.
4. Tommy Edman’s walk-off single against the Marlins
Date: April 28
WPA: 45.2%
Game Impact: Tommy Edman’s two-RBI, walk-off single in the 10th secured the first win of the series sweep. It was a scheduled off day for the veteran, but he entered in the eighth as a pinch-hitter and stayed in the game.
5. Teoscar Hernández’s three-run homer against the Diamondbacks
Date: May 21
WPA: 43.6%
Game Impact: Hernández capped off the comeback 3–1 win with a go-ahead three-run homer against the Diamondbacks in the sixth. Arizona starter Corbin Burnes tossed five scoreless innings leading up to Hernández’s home run.
6. Max Muncy’s game-tying homer against the Mets
Date: June 3
WPA: 43.5%
Game Impact: Max Muncy tied the score 5–5 in the ninth inning with a solo home run. He started the scoring in the first with a two-run homer. The Dodgers beat the Mets 6–5.
7. Max Muncy’s grand slam against the Nationals
Date: June 22
WPA: 41.5%
Game Impact: Muncy’s grand slam gave the Dodgers a 4–3 lead in the sixth inning against the Nationals. LA added seven more runs in the seventh inning. They beat the Nationals, 13–4.
8. Shohei Ohtani’s walk-off home run against the Braves
Date: April 2
WPA: 41.8%
Game Impact: The Dodgers scored six unanswered runs as they roared back from a 5–0 deficit. Shohei Ohtani walked it off in the ninth with a solo home run to center field against Braves closer Raisel Iglesias. It was Ohtani’s first bobblehead night of the season.
9. Will Smith’s walk-off home run against the Padres
Date: June 18
WPA: 41.8%
Game Impact: The Padres tied the score 3–3 in the ninth on a sacrifice fly by Jake Cronenworth and a Xander Bogaerts double. Will Smith came off the bench as a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the ninth with one out. On a 0–2 count, Smith connected on a slider from Robert Suarez and sent it to right-center field. The Dodgers won 4–3.
10. Will Smith’s World Series Game 7 go-ahead home run
Date: Nov. 1
WPA: 41.1%
Game Impact: The Dodgers’ epic comeback against the Blue Jays was completed with Will Smith’s go-ahead home run in the 11th inning in Game 7 of the World Series. It was his second homer of the postseason run. Smith hit the first extra-inning homer in a winner-take-all game in World Series history.
But we can’t leave these off …
There were two other game-changers. The reason they’re not in the above 10 is they had less in-game win-probability added than the others. However, if the metric is changed to championship win probability added, then the Rojas homer increased the Dodgers World Series championship probability by 34.91% and Freeman’s homer added 13.61%. Will Smith’s homer in Game 7 added 41.03%
Freddie Freeman’s walk-off home run in Game 3 of the World Series
Date: Oct. 27
WPA: 36.1%
Game Impact: Freddie Freeman ended the 18-inning battle between the Dodgers and Blue Jays with a walk-off home run in Game 3 of the World Series. The Dodgers took a 2–1 series lead with Freeman’s 18th-inning homer. It was his second career postseason walk-off home run — one year after his 2024 World Series Game 1 walk-off grand slam against the Yankees.
Miguel Rojas’ World Series Game 7 game-tying home run
Date: Nov. 1
WPA: 44.2%
Game Impact: The Dodgers were two outs away from losing the final game of the World Series. But Miguel Rojas, the №9 hitter, connected on a slider from Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman and sent his second career postseason home run into left field.
Rojas became the first player ever to hit a game-tying home run in the ninth inning of a World Series Game 7.
The most game-changing hits by the Dodgers in 2025 was originally published in Dodger Insider on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.