Roki Sasaki’s American endgame

Roki Sasaki is expected to pick an MLB team between January 15 and January 23. True Blue LA’s detailed compendium of the unprecedented signing process.

For two seasons, I have monitored Roki Sasaki. Below is a detailed compendium of the Sasaki saga, similar to the Ippei Mizuhara scandal. This saga will conclude by January 23, the deadline for Sasaki to sign under the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) posting rules.

A primer on the posting rules

Barring a separate side deal, it is worth noting that, generally, NPB teams view the posting system as a reward for performance in NPB. There is no denying that Sasaki has the goods to be an elite pitcher when physically healthy.

Examining Sasaki’s stuff in detail merits its own separate essay. In my mind, the best comparison for Sasaki is Dustin May. When healthy, they both have electric, unhittable stuff. But it may be difficult to swallow that both players have consistently been unable to stay healthy for a full season. Sasaki pitched just 111 innings in NPB in 2024, but his stuff was elite. Moreover, unlike would-be teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sasaki lacks the pedigree of awards or accolades.

When we last covered this topic, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported on the consensus of owners: Sasaki seemed poised to eschew tradition and make the leap to the United States sooner than almost anyone in history.

There was no path for Sasaki to the majors this offseason unless Sasaki had a side deal with the Marines to post him in 2024. Let us quote the relevant portions of the Japanese Posting System:

Players from Japan’s top league — Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) — who do not have the requisite nine years of professional experience to gain international free agency can request to be “posted” for Major League clubs…

The caveat of the posting system is that foreign-born players are subject to international bonus pool money restrictions unless they are at least 25 years of age and have played as a professional in a foreign league recognized by Major League Baseball for a minimum of six seasons.

[emphasis added.]

Early arrival shocker

Accordingly, turning 25 does not guarantee a spot in a major league team’s bid. Kodai Senga had to wait until he had nine years of NPB experience before joining the Mets in 2023. Sasaki is only 23 and has been pitching since 2019, far short of the requisite nine years to reach international free agency.

As such, the rules were amended after Hideki Irabu’s team, again the Marines, made a side deal with the San Diego Padres. Ultimately, Irabu did not want to play for the Padres and held out until he was traded to the New York Yankees. Irabu’s tenure in New York was the stuff of tragedy, a topic for another day. Regardless, the current posting system is a result of the Irabu affair.

We previously covered how the Marines had absolutely no financial incentive to post Sasaki before the conclusion of the 2026 season — the season that Sasaki would finally turn 25:

Exceptions to the posting system can be made via contract as with Shun Yamaguchi, formerly of the Yomiuri Giants, who reportedly had an exit clause worked into his NPB contract enabling the Giants to break their “no posting” policy in 2019.

Before the 2023 offseason completed…the consensus around Sasaki was that he would be posted after the 2026 season, the [Marines] would collect a king’s ransom, and Sasaki would be off on his merry way.

By back-of-the-envelope math, even if Sasaki were only to duplicate Yamamoto’s deal, the Marines would still end up with around $50 million. In contrast, the Marines’ 2023 total payroll was 2.09 billion yen (a shade over $14.1 million).

On November 7th, Francys Romero reported that the Marines’ decision on Sasaki would be publically announced “in the next few days.” Technically, the deadline for an NPB team to post a player in the 2024 signing period was December 15th, which would start the 45-day clock for a team to reach an agreement with a player.

The Dodgers had just over $2.5 million in the 2024 international signing pool available to spend (just do not ask Andrew Friedman about it during the World Series…), but the bigger hurdle would be player availability rather than money. If everything went the Dodgers’ way, the team would get a Dustin May/Paul Skenes-type arm for pennies on the dollar.

Then, on November 9, the impossible became possible: Sasaki was coming stateside. After some high drama, the expectations shifted once again. On December 13, the Dodgers spent their surplus international money on seven prospects. Nevertheless, Sasaki’s clock started on December 10.

All teams would start from roughly the same financial position, as Sasaki would be posted in the 2025 international signing window on January 15, nine days before the 45-day window closes.

The 45-day timer starts

For those who do not read Japanese, the Marines posted the following statements in early November as the team started the posting process. Sasaki will now be represented by Wasserman and agent Joel Wolfe, who has clients such as Yamamoto, Yu Darvish, Kodai Senga, and others.

Per Naoki Matsumoto, General Manager:

“Ever since [Sasaki] joined the team, he has expressed his dream of playing in the United States. After making a comprehensive decision over the past five years, we have decided to respect his wish. We hope he will do his best as a representative of Japan. We are rooting for him.”

Per Team Director Masahito Yoshii:

“Of course, it’s a huge blow for the team. However, I’ve played in America myself, so I understand how he feels. I also understand his desire to take on the challenge now, as he’s young. To be honest, there are still many areas where he needs to improve, but I think he can hone himself and improve his level even further in America. When I saw him pitch for the first time in the bullpen at the Ishigakijima training camp in 2020, it was the biggest shock I’ve seen since the first time I saw Nomo Hideo. I hope he can prove that over there. Do your best.”

Per Roki Sasaki:

“Since joining the team, the team has continued to listen to my thoughts about my future challenge in the MLB, and I am very grateful to the team for now officially allowing me to post. There were many things that did not go well during my five years with the Marines, but I was always supported by my teammates, staff, front office, and fans, and was able to come this far by concentrating only on baseball. I will do my best to work my way up from my minor contract to become the best player in the world, so that I will have no regrets in this one and only baseball career, and so that I can live up to the expectations of everyone who has supported me this time.”

[emphasis added.]

On December 10th, Wolfe sent all 30 MLB teams a letter inviting them to submit presentations to Sasaki, starting the posting clock. Shockingly, even with a roughly equal financial playing field, only 20 teams submitted presentations of varying quality and uniqueness per Wolfe. Considering the minimal financial cost, any front office that did not participate committed baseball malpractice and should not be taken seriously for anything going forward.

The Dodgers publicly met with the Sasaki team in December. While it would be tempting to view the Dodgers as heavy favorites to land Sasaki due to their successful wooing of Shohei Ohtani and Yamamoto in 2024, the team’s huge popularity in Japan, and the fact that they just won the World Series, Jeff Passan of ESPN threw some cold water on this Voltron-esque fantasy when news broke in November.

Throughout the 2024 season, MLB presidents of baseball operations and general managers were fixtures at Sasaki’s starts. Sasaki is close with right-hander Yu Darvish, whose team, the San Diego Padres, figures to be a potential landing spot. Both New York teams have extreme interest in Sasaki, though he could also opt for an organization with pedigree and experience (the Chicago Cubs), a team in an international city (the Toronto Blue Jays), one whose past success with Japanese players still resonates (Darvish started his career with the Texas Rangers) or those whose reputation for bringing the best out in players might appeal (the Tampa Bay Rays). Plenty of other franchises can — and will — make strong appeals to Sasaki once he is posted.

Respectfully, if Passan truly believes that Sasaki will end up in Tampa, Toronto, or Chicago, then I am half expecting him to try to sell everyone a slightly used orange bridge in San Francisco as a follow-up.

The fever pitch of “Sasaki to the Dodgers” grew so loud at the end of 2024 that his agent publicly stated that no deal was in place. Those who know Sasaki’s thinking are not talking, and those who do not will not stop talking. Still, there is a throughline that would indeed suggest that the Dodgers are the prohibitive favorites to land the Japanese phenom.

But what if we were to play Devil’s Advocate for a moment? Sasaki is allegedly close to San Diego Padres hurler Yu Darvish and has been photographed in Padres gear. Given these facts, Sasaki ending up in the brown and yellow of the Padres is not a farfetched idea.

However, envisioning a scenario where Sasaki ends up with the Padres presents challenges due to Darvish approaching his age-39 season. Sasaki recognizes that he must continue to develop to achieve his professional aspirations. By the time Sasaki attains the refinement necessary to fulfill his potential, it would be exceedingly unexpected if Darvish had not already retired.

Moreover, the Padres are expected to lose key contributors from the NLDS-losing 2024 roster. As of this essay, the Padres resigned Mike Shildt to manage for two years and have made some minor league signings. Tanner Scott, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jurickson Profar are expected to play elsewhere in 2025.

While I do not and will not claim any insight into Sasaki’s mind, it does seem reasonable that if Sasaki wants to win now on the biggest stage, he would choose the Dodgers and entrust himself to their system. Xavier Scruggs said as much on MLB Radio.

It is worth briefly noting the potential negative ramifications on Japanese baseball potentially caused by Sasaki’s decision to come Stateside.

Why NPB matters

In any event, Sasaki is making the jump to MLB at such a young age is a black mark for NPB. NPB has its own customs and traditions that serve to make its own thing. NPB is not supposed to be just a feeder league for MLB. While the Dodger fan in me would (and does) salivate at Sasaki’s arrival, the baseball fan in me does wonder at what cost that scenario would occur.

Effectively, the Marines drafted a Paul Skenes-to-Dustin May-type pitcher, handled him with the softest of kid’s gloves, and will now get pennies on the dollar because the risk of Sasaki going elsewhere or holding out as a 19-year-old was too great to ignore to do anything else.

Do I anticipate other Japanese pitchers pulling a Sasaki and trying to put their teams over a barrel to force the issue to come to the United States? Not imminently, but I am not the only person who sees the slippery slope here.

Irabu’s situation forced a change in the system. I would be genuinely shocked if Sasaki’s departure did not have a similar effect, especially if he ends up wearing Dodger blue.

The endgame has begun

On December 30, Tim Healey of Newsday and Plunkett reported separately on conversations with Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe. Plunkett’s reporting is excellent and should be read in full. Per Wolfe:

“Roki is by no means a finished product. He knows it and the teams know it. He is incredibly talented. We all know that,” Wolfe said Monday, offering a limited update on Sasaki’s signing process. “But he is a guy that wants to be great. He’s not coming here to be rich or to get a huge contract. He wants to be great. He wants to be one of the greatest ever. I see that now and he has articulated it.

“To be that he knows he has to challenge himself. … I’m not speaking for Roki. I’m speaking my own opinion that in order to take it to another level he (realized he) had to come here and play against the best players every day and tap into all the resources that major league teams have to help him become one of the best pitchers not just to come out of NPB but in Major League Baseball. That’s what he wants. That’s why he came.”

An unidentified number of teams met at Wolfe’s office in Los Angeles in December. Each team was limited to two hours. Per Sasaki’s request, no current players appeared in person at the meetings, but some did appear in the materials of the submitted presentations. Sasaki also assigned homework to the teams so that he could understand “how [the teams] can analyze and communicate information with him.”

Sonja Chen of MLB.com elaborated that, per Wolfe, Sasaki was interested in pitching development and considered various factors in his ultimate decision, including market size, team success, and whether a team already has Japanese players.

As of this essay, seven teams have publicly met with Sasaki. Sasaki is currently in Japan, but according to Plunkett, he is expected to return to the United States in January for a second round of meetings with a limited number of teams.

Sasaki cannot sign before January 15, the start of the 2025 international signing period. Moreover, based on the timing in this case, he has to sign before January 23, the date of his posting window.

Sasaki has been on the Dodgers’ radar for years, but whether they will get their man for a second offseason in a row is an open question. Per his agent, Sasaki is in charge of the process and is not expected to make a decision immediately after January 15. In fact, Frances Romero reported that January 20 is the day when a decision will be made.

Regardless, expect a wild period of waiting and speculating until the deadline of January 23rd.