Editor’s note: This is the Monday Oct. 11 edition of the Inside the Dodgers newsletter from reporter J.P. Hoornstra. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.
The 2021 Dodgers’ season was a difficult one to read into. It held more contradictions than consistencies. Andrew Friedman used the 2020-21 off-season to build a strong, seven-deep starting rotation, yet by June the Dodgers were regularly deploying bullpen games. They had a 2019 and 2018 MVP patrolling the outfield, but Mookie Betts did not resemble an All-Star at the plate until mid-July, while Cody Bellinger never resembled even a replacement-level major leaguer. The team won 106 games, matching a franchise record, yet finished second in the National League West.
More than that, the Dodgers were a team of moving parts. They used 61 players during the regular season, a franchise record. By mid-September, the 26-man postseason roster was obvious. Then Max Muncy and Clayton Kershaw got hurt, and Billy McKinney and Steven Souza Jr. stepped in. Change has been the team’s only constant.
Or so it seemed. A theme has emerged so far in the first three postseason games, and it’s a theme that looks like a strong bet to repeat for as long as the Dodgers are playing: the pitching is going to be OK.
There have been 104 plate appearances against Dodger pitchers between the wild-card game and the first two games of the NLDS. Opposing batters are hitting .189 with a .260 OBP while striking out in one of every four plate appearances. There are no soft spots in a three-man rotation of Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer and Julio Urías. If Dave Roberts continues to mix and match his relief pitchers with the precision he’s shown, this bullpen is deep enough to reward him more often than not.
That theory will be tested in Tuesday’s Game 4, which is shaping up to feature Tony Gonsolin facing the Giants roughly two times through the batting order. That doesn’t perfectly hew to the dictionary definition of a “bullpen game,” but it might get close. Even if Gonsolin does exit early, it’s not necessarily cause for concern. The Dodgers used bullpen games regularly once Kershaw and Gonsolin visited the injured list, and Trevor Bauer was placed on administrative leave. The Dodgers went 8-3 in games started by relief pitchers from July onward. Their top three starters will all collect Cy Young Award votes. There’s little reason to believe pitching will be the Dodgers’ downfall this month.
The lineup offers a shorter track record of hope.
In 23 games from Aug. 18 to Sept. 11, the Dodgers slashed .201/.276/.370. In 19 games from Sept. 12 to Oct. 3, those numbers ticked up to .279/.353/.509. Getting AJ Pollock back from a hamstring injury helped. So did the return of Gavin Lux from Triple-A. Justin Turner emerged from a summer slump around this time, and Cody Bellinger started hitting a bit more like his old self too. These things are fickle. Streaks like these can come and go without warning. The point is, “consistent” is not a word one would use to describe the Dodgers’ offensive prowess over the last two months.
Now, losing Muncy to an elbow injury leaves the offense without one of its best weapons for likely the rest of the postseason. It forces Bellinger, Gavin Lux, Matt Beaty, and/or Albert Pujols into the starting lineup. The Dodgers were in a similar position before they traded for Trea Turner at the deadline. A lot of the same caveats I expressed about the bench then apply now. It’s the weakest link on a team that still rolls a formidable batting order from 1-5, and whose pitchers led the majors in WHIP, opponents’ batting average, and earned-run average.
It appears the Dodgers will go as far as their “other” position players, the guys who usually bat after Will Smith in the order, will take them. One could argue this was the case in their last three World Series appearances too. In 2017 and 2018, the Dodgers only got one or two MVP-caliber performances from a position player. In 2020, that was not the case. Corey Seager was the MVP, Joc Pederson and Justin Turner offered their usual October small-sample heroics, Mookie Betts hit like he had all season, and Muncy rebounded from the hand injury he suffered in summer camp just in the nick of time. Guess which of the three series the Dodgers won?
This is why Saturday’s victory over San Francisco felt significant. The Dodgers’ 6 through 9 hitters went 6 for 13 with six runs scored and five RBIs. That might prove to be a one-off occurrence. It might just be fate’s fickle finger offering another turning point for an enigmatic offense.
Game 3 presents some new variables, like a left-handed pitcher (Alex Wood) with whom the Dodgers are very familiar. Scherzer hasn’t been on base since Sept. 2019, so it is perhaps unreasonable to expect him to drive in a run with a single, like Urías did in Game 2. It isn’t unreasonable to expect Scherzer’s cleaned-up mechanics to move him closer to the Cy Young form he flashed during the regular season, or for the bullpen to facilitate the rest of the 27 outs the Dodgers need to win.
I’m still not sure what to expect from the back end of the Dodgers’ lineup, or a bench that includes Souza and McKinney. Knock on Wood.
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