By DAVID BRANDT AP Baseball Writer
It’s a big number for one of the biggest baseball stars of this generation – three-time Cy Young Award winner and Dodgers legend Clayton Kershaw has reached 3,000 strikeouts.
It happened on Wednesday night in the sixth inning against the Chicago White Sox when the 6-foot-4 lefty caught Vinny Capra looking with a slider, setting off a huge celebration from the adoring crowd at Dodger Stadium. Kershaw became just the 20th pitcher in MLB history – and one of three active pitchers along with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer – to hit the milestone.
It’s a time for celebration. It’s also a time for wistful contemplation.
Are we nearing the end of these kinds of career celebrations – particularly for pitchers?
Kershaw is one of the final holdovers from his generation, one that included guys who threw at least 200 innings year after year, piling up wins and strikeouts thanks to consistent excellence. In his prime from 2010 to 2015, he led the National League in ERA five times, in strikeouts three times and wins twice.
His peak arguably came in 2014, when he finished with a 21-3 record, 1.77 ERA and 233 strikeouts to win both the Cy Young and MVP in the National League.
Kershaw, now 37, isn’t the same pitcher these days, though his success over the past month is a testament to the knowledge, grit and sheer willpower that only an 18-year veteran can possess. He was 4-0 with a 3.03 ERA through eight starts coming into Wednesday, providing an injury-riddled Dodgers rotation with a spark despite a fastball that barely hits 90 mph on a good day.
“He has given us a shot in the arm,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “We’re sort of ailing on the starting pitching side. Coming in and giving us valuable innings. I just love that kind of edge that he gives on start day.
“We certainly feed off that.”
Kershaw’s twilight is coinciding with the final years of Verlander and Scherzer, and the trio is primed to join the Hall of Fame over the next decade. The group symbolizes what might be the last gasp of long-term excellence on the pitcher’s mound.
The 42-year-old Verlander has won 262 career games while Kershaw and Scherzer – who turns 41 this month – both sit at 216. After that, the career leaderboards fall off dramatically.
It’s fair to wonder if any other MLB pitcher ever will reach 200 career wins again, much less 300, which was the gold standard for generations and last reached by the likes of Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens in the 2000s and 2010s.
Consider this: The current career wins leader for a pitcher under 30 is the 28-year-old Logan Webb, who has a grand total of 62.
Getting to 3,000 strikeouts is a little more realistic given the sport-wide increase in pitch velocity, but even that’s in question. Atlanta’s Chris Sale (2,528 Ks) is 36 and could get there with a few more healthy seasons. New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (2,254) has a chance, too – if the 34-year-old can bounce back from elbow surgery.
But again, the list of pitchers piling up strikeouts in their 20s is conspicuously absent.
The 29-year-old Dylan Cease is the under-30 leader with 1,133 career Ks, but he likely will need a decade of good health to get close. By comparison, Kershaw had 2,120 strikeouts entering his age-30 season.
There are some young, promising arms that might emerge in the future – think Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal – but the trends aren’t pointing in the right direction.
It seems like every few days, another star pitcher goes down to Tommy John elbow surgery or a similar procedure, leaving them out of action for at least a year.
Surely, career-altering injuries have been a part of baseball forever, but this feels different.
To dominate in today’s game, velocity is paramount. So is movement. The main goal is to make the baseball move as quickly and violently as possible, and today’s pitchers are throwing nastier pitches than ever before. A big fastball used to be anything in the 90s just a few decades ago. Now, that number is closer to 100.
The big problem is that most human arms don’t seem to be able to handle the stress – particularly for the lengthy amounts of time needed to chase 300 wins, 3,000 strikeouts or many of the other career milestones that once defined greatness.
Over the next generation, the metrics that determine which pitchers enter Cooperstown will likely change dramatically. Arizona righty Zac Gallen – who has 58 career wins and turns 30 in August – said last year that it’s possible some pitchers from the current generation will be left out of the Hall of Fame as the definition of excellence changes.
It should be a fascinating transition.
But for at least one more night – in front of roughly 50,000 joyous fans – Kershaw carried the torch for traditional pitching greatness.
Enjoy it, because that light appears to be fading fast.
AP freelance writer Jack Magruder in Denver contributed to this report.