Dodgers second baseman is eligible for salary arbitration for a second time
Now that we’ve looked at the quintet of relief pitchers, we turn our attention to the lone Dodgers position player eligible for salary arbitration. That’s second baseman Gavin Lux, who is in a much different position than a year ago.
Lux first went through the arbitration process last year, having just passed three years of service time, but he was coming off a lost 2023 season after tearing his ACL in spring training before the calendar even turned to March. When we looked at comparable players to Lux, we were limited to career totals because there was no launch season in question.
He and the Dodgers reached agreement last January on a $1.225 million contract for 2024.
Now, with four years, 114 days of service time, Lux is going through the process for a second time, coming off of a full season.
The long-discussed plan for Lux to take over shortstop died on the vine in spring training, as his throws were too erratic to keep him at the position. Concern shifted to his bat during the season, as he hit just .213/.267/.295 with a 60 wRC+ through the All-Star break.
Lux was able to turn things around, thanks to a more aggressive approach at the plate, and he hit .304/.391/.508 over the final two and a half months. On the season, Lux posted a 100 wRC+, a perfectly league-average hitter when taking into account his park and league environment.
Some of the position players we used last year for Lux are still comparable to him now in the four-year tier of service time. Plus a few new additions to the list might help us decipher what Lux might earn in 2025.
Right off the bat, Joey Wendle at the top seems like an outlier, with a much better launch season than Lux.
Luis Rengifo looks reasonably comparable to Lux, but given Rengifo’s higher previous base salary to work with, maybe his 91.3-percent raise is the number to use. Lux getting Rengifo’s raise percentage would mean $2.34 million in 2025.
Let’s look at career numbers from this group through four years of service time, to see if we can gain any more clarity.
Lux’s career numbers compare favorable to Cavan Biggio from a year ago, with Biggio a little better offensively and nearly 10-percent more plate appearances, and Lux having the edge on defense. But like Rengifo, Biggio was working off a higher base salary the year before, and it’s hard to see Lux jumping from $1.225 million to $4 million.
Lux has better career numbers than Jorge Mateo, who earned $2.7 million last year. Such a salary would represent a 120-percent raise for Lux. You could argue Lux was better than Adalberto Mondesí from three years ago too, but the profiles are different with most of Mondesí’s value coming from his defense. Mondesí earned $3 million in 2022.
Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects a $3.225 million salary for Lux in 2025, while MLB Trade Rumors predicts $2.7 million. I’ll stick with my better-than-Mateo thought here and say Lux will make $2.85 million this season.