Two Dodgers relievers with over four years of service time, entering their third year through the salary arbitration process.
The group of remaining Dodgers eligible for salary arbitration in 2025 is very bullpen-heavy, with five relief pitchers among the six players who will likely have a contract by the second week of January.
We’ll look at two of them at once today, with both Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol going through the arbitration process for a third year. They were Super Two players heading into the 2023 season, among the top 22 percent in major league servie time among players with at least two but not yet three years of service time. Now, Graterol has four years, 167 days of service time, and Phillips has four years, 136 days.
But shoulder issues separate Graterol here. He missed over four months of the regular season and two playoff rounds with shoulder inflammation, and another month with a hamstring strain. Graterol pitched a combined 9⅔ innings between the regular season and World Series, then had shoulder surgery in November to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder that will keep him out until the second half of 2025.
The Dodgers already avoided arbitration for 2025 with Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, each pitcher re-upping for the same salary as 2024 after missing the entire season. Same for Walker Buehler last January, signing for $8.025 million to match his 2023 salary after not pitching in the majors at all that season.
Graterol did get into 10 games this season, but likely won’t get much of a raise if at all through arbitration, especially factoring in the months he’s expected to miss this coming season. Both MLB Trade Rumors and Cot’s Baseball Contracts predict Graterol in 2025 will make the same $2.7 million he made in 2024.
So the comparable pitchers with similar service times are really more about Phillips than Graterol. We found a group of pitchers comparable to both last year, and we’ll use the same group this time, looking at how they did the following year through arbitration.
I did add Colin Poche to this group this year, though he seems more akin to Graterol, especially in career totals.
As a caveat, don’t get too caught up in the Wins Above Replacement for relievers, especially for single seasons. I’m just including them as a quick snapshot, though I have a hard time believing Phillips was below replacement level in 2024 as the Baseball Reference version of WAR suggests.
It’s hard to see a direct match for Phillips in this group. Maybe it’s A.J. Minter after the 2022 season, but Phillips is working from a much higher base salary, having earned $1.3 million in 2023 and $4 million last year.
But for players with under five years of service time, comparable players can be used from the next service-time rung above them. If we look back at the comps for Michael Kopech from yesterday, a few other pitchers seem similar to Phillips, at least using career numbers.
Clay Holmes and Tanner Scott last year are more in the range of projections for Phillips this year. MLB Trade Rumors projects a $6.2 million salary for Phillips in 2025, while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has him at $5.95 million.
I was wildly low in my predictions for Phillips and Graterol last year, so I’ll over-correct this time, picking $6.25 million for Phillips and a slight raise to $2.8 million for Graterol.