SERIES SCHEDULE (all times PT)
Game 1: Dodgers at Phillies, Saturday, 3:38 p.m., TBS
Game 2: Dodgers at Phillies, Monday, 3:08 p.m., TBS
Game 3: Phillies at Dodgers, Wednesday, TBA, TBS
x-Game 4: Phillies at Dodgers, Thursday, TBA, TBS
x-Game 5: Dodgers at Phillies, Saturday (Oct. 11), TBA, TBS
x- if necessary
Season series: The Phillies won, 4-2.
TALE OF THE TAPE (OFFENSE)
Phillies (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)
96-66 (1st in NL East) … Record … 93-69 (1st in NL West)
778 (5th) … Runs scored … 825 (1st)
.258 (1st) … Batting avg. … .253 (3rd)
.328 (2nd) … OBP … .327 (3rd)
.431 (3rd) … Slugging pct. … .441 (1st)
.759 (2nd) … OPS … .768 (1st)
212 (5th) … Home runs … 244 (1st)
124 (6th) … Stolen bases … 88 (12th)
TALE OF THE TAPE (PITCHING)
Phillies (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)
3.79 (4th) … Team ERA … 3.95 (8th)
3.53 (1st) … Starters ERA … 3.69 (3rd)
4.27 (T-10th) … Bullpen ERA … 4.27 (T-10th)
1.23 (6th) … WHIP … 1.26 (7th)
9.19 (2nd) … Ks per 9 inns … 9.40 (1st)
PROJECTED LINEUPS
PHILLIES: SS Trea Turner (.304/.355/.457, 15 HRs, 69 RBIs, 36 SBs, 94 runs scored), DH Kyle Schwarber (.240/.365/.563, 56 HRs, 132 RBIs, 108 walks), 1B Bryce Harper (.261/.357/.487, 27 HRs, 75 RBIs, 12 SBs), C JT Realmuto (.257/.315/.384, 12 HRs, 52 RBIs), 3B Alec Bohm (.287/.331/.409, 11 HRs, 59 RBIs), LF Brandon Marsh (.280/.342/.443, 11 HRs, 43 RBIs), RF Nick Castellanos (.250/.294/.400, 17 HRs, 72 RBIs), 2B Bryson Stott (.257/.328/.391, 13 HRs, 66 RBIs, 24 SBs), CF Harrison Bader (.277/.347/.449, 17 HRs, 54 RBIs, 11 SBs with Twins and Phillies)
DODGERS: DH Shohei Ohtani (.282/.392/.622, 55 HRs, 102 RBIs, 20 SBs, 146 runs scored), SS Mookie Betts (.258/.3226/.406, 20 HRs, 82 RBIs, 95 runs scored), 1B Freddie Freeman (.295/.367/.502, 24 HRs, 90 RBIs), 3B Max Muncy (.243/.376/.470, 19 HRs, 87 RBIs), LF Teoscar Hernandez (.247/.284/.454, 25 HRs, 89 RBIs), CF Andy Pages (.272/.313/.461, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs, 14 SBs), 2B Tommy Edman (.225/.274/.382, 13 HRs, 49 RBIs), LF Kiké Hernandez (.203/.255/.366, 10 HRs, 35 RBIs), C Ben Rortvedt (.224/.309/.327, 1 HR, 4 RBIs).
These two offenses are very similar – first and third in the National League in batting average, second and third in on-base percentage, first and third in slugging percentage, first and second in OPS. Both have a power trio at the top of their lineup – Trea Turner, NL home run leader Kyle Schwarber and former MVP Bryce Harper for Philly, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman for the Dodgers – and a dangerous supporting cast.
For the first time, the Dodgers find themselves on the opposite side of the debate over the benefits/challenges of a five-day break before opening the postseason.
“Baseball is a timing game. Does the long layoff ruin that?” pitcher Clayton Kershaw said in 2023 after the Dodgers’ offense was a no-show in back-to-back first-round playoff defeats following the bye break.
“Look, it’s hard. I mean, pitching maybe not so much, but obviously offensively these guys are so used to playing every day. So I get it. Extra teams and more money, all that stuff (led to the bye format). I get it. But I do think that – I’m not a hitter, but it does seem like it’s a bit of a challenge for guys.”
Adding to the challenge for the Phillies, Turner missed three weeks in September with a hamstring injury and returned only for the regular-season finale. The Dodgers will still have to match the Phillies’ firepower. Another similarity between the two teams – both are particularly potent at their home ballparks. That could be decisive for the Phillies, who have home-field advantage in the best-of-five series. EDGE: PHILLIES
STARTING PITCHERS
PHILLIES: LH Cristopher Sanchez (13-5, 2.50 ERA, 202 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 9.4 Ks per 9 IP), LH Jesus Luzardo (15-7, 3.92 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP), LH Ranger Suarez (12-8, 3.20, 1.22 WHIP, 8.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Aaron Nola (5-10, 6.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9.3 Ks per 9 IP)
DODGERS: RH Shohei Ohtani (1-1, 2.87 ERA, 47 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 11.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-8, 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.4 Ks per 9 IP), RH Tyler Glasnow (4-3, 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP)
The Dodgers faced the Phillies’ top three (healthy) starters – Cy Young Award candidate Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo and Ranger Suarez – during their series at Dodger Stadium just a little over two weeks ago. They got to them for 11 runs in 20 innings. The fact that all three are left-handed would seem to be an advantage for the Phillies, nullifying three of the Dodgers’ key hitters – Ohtani, Freeman and Max Muncy. But Ohtani and Freeman aren’t your typical left-handed hitters. Their splits are fairly even and the Dodgers actually had the best slugging percentage and OPS and second-best batting average against left-handed pitching in the NL this year. The late-season rebirths of Betts and Teoscar Hernandez have been a big part of that.
Ohtani and Blake Snell also pitched during that September series against the Phillies. Neither gave up a run. Ohtani didn’t give up a hit in his five-inning start. The Dodgers will ask all of their starters to go deep in games in order to minimize the Phillies’ play time against their bullpen. EDGE: DODGERS
PROJECTED BULLPEN
PHILLIES: RH Jhoan Duran (7-6, 2.06, 32 saves, 5 blown saves, 1.10 WHIP, 10.3 Ks per 9 IP with Twins and Phillies), RH David Robertson (2-0, 4.08 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 11.2 Ks per 9 IP), LH Tanner Banks (6-2, 1 save, 3.07 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 8.2 Ks per 9 IP), RH Orion Kierkering (8-4, 4 saves, 3.30 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.8 Ks per 9 IP), RH Walker Buehler (10-7, 4.93 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.6 Ks per 9 IP), LH Matt Strahm (2-3, 6 saves, 2.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.1 Ks per 9 IP), RH Jordan Romano (2-4, 8 saves, 8.23 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH Tim Mayza (0-0, 3.78 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.1 Ks per 9 IP), RH Taijuan Walker (5-8, 1 save, 4.08 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.3 Ks per 9 IP)
DODGERS: LH Tanner Scott (1-4, 23 saves, 10 blown saves, 4.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Blake Treinen (2-7, 2 saves, 5.40 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 12.2 Ks per 9 IP), LH Alex Vesia (4-2, 5 saves, 3.02 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 12.1 Ks per 9 IP), LH Jack Dreyer (3-2, 4 saves, 2.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.7 Ks per 9 IP), RH Roki Sasaki (1-1, 4.46 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.9 Ks per 9 IP in 10 appearances, 8 starts), RH Emmet Sheehan (6-3, 2.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.9 Ks per 9 IP in 15 appearances, 12 starts), LH Anthony Banda (5-1, 3.18 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.4 Ks per 9 IP), LH Clayton Kershaw (11-2, 3.36 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.7 Ks per 9 IP), RH Edgardo Henriquez (2-1, 1 save, 2.37 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.5 Ks per 9 IP)
About that series in September – the Dodgers lost two of three games to the Phillies thanks to their faulty bullpen. The Phillies made the most of the Dodgers’ Achilles’ heel, scoring 14 runs in 10⅓ innings against Dodgers relievers (including Anthony Banda who pitched as an opener in one game). The Dodgers have a new weapon since then – Roki Sasaki. His transformation from a shaky rookie starter into a dynamic reliever could transform the Dodgers’ bullpen – but there are still going to be innings that the rest of the relief crew has to cover.
The Phillies’ bullpen hasn’t been great this season either. Unlike Andrew Friedman, though, Dave Dombrowski pulled the trigger on a big move at the trade deadline, acquiring a new closer in Jhoan Duran. Duran has been good but not impregnable (16 saves, three blown saves) and the setup crew in front of him is unimpressive. Displaced starters like Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola and former Dodger Walker Buehler (released by the Boston Red Sox in August) could play roles. EDGE: EVEN
BENCH
PHILLIES: IF Edmundo Sosa (.276/.307/.469, 11 HRs, 39 RBIs), OF Max Kepler (.216/.300/.391, 18 HRs, 52 RBIs), C Rafael Marchan, .210/.282/.305, 2 HRs, 13 RBIs), IF Otto Kemp (.234/.298/.411, 8 HRs, 28 RBIs), IF-OF Weston Wilson (.198/.282/.369, 5 HRs, 17 RBIs)
DODGERS: C Will Smith (.296/.404/.497, 17 HRs, 61 RBIs), OF Michael Conforto (.199/.305/.333, 12 HRs, 36 RBIs), IF Hyeseong Kim (.280/.314/.385, 3 HRs, 17 RBIs, 13 SBs), C Dalton Rushing (.204/.258/.324, 4 HRs, 24 RBIs), OF Alex Call (.267/.361/.385, 5 HRs, 31 RBIs with Dodgers and Nationals)
The Dodgers carried three catchers for the Wild Card Series when Will Smith showed he had recovered enough from his hand injury to at least pinch-hit. They didn’t use Smith against the Reds, giving him a few more days to get his hand back to full strength for this series. Look for him to get back in the starting lineup at some point early in the NLDS, particularly with an extra off day between Games 1 and 2.
The Phillies, meanwhile, will platoon some with their outfield, using the left-handed Max Kepler instead of the right-handed Nick Castellanos. Both are power threats (though Castellanos had a down year). EDGE: DODGERS
MANAGERS
PHILLIES: Rob Thomson, fourth season, 346-251, .580, fourth postseason 20-14, .588 (1 NL pennant)
DODGERS: Dave Roberts, 10th season, 944-576, .621, 10th postseason 58-44, .569 (4 pennants, 2 World Series titles)
Relievers have been dropping from Dave Roberts’ “trust tree” like fall leaves. He showed you what he thinks of that group when he pulled Alex Vesia and Edgardo Henriquez each after the minimum three batters in the eighth inning of Game 1 against the Reds then yanked a shaky Emmet Sheehan in the middle of an at-bat in Game 2. October is no time to be patient and Roberts will have to continue that aggressive managing to avoid his bullpen sabotaging the Dodgers’ postseason.
Thomson made his mark in 2022 when he took over a 22-29 team from fired manager Joe Girardi and led them to a 65-46 record as interim manager. That Phillies team got to the World Series (and lost to the Houston Astros), securing the full-time job for Thomson, who has led them to four consecutive playoff spots and back-to-back NL East titles. EDGE: DODGERS
SERIES PREDICTION
A year ago, the Dodgers faced the Padres in the NLDS and Roberts later said “that was the World Series” for the Dodgers. The Padres were the best team the Dodgers faced during their run to a World Series championship. The same thing might be true of this Phillies team if the Dodgers can get past them. The two teams are very similar offensively, have strong starting pitching and bullpens that are their weakest groups. The Dodgers haven’t played particularly well at Citizens Bank Park recently – they have lost seven of their nine games there over the past three seasons. Underperforming for two months in midseason – they were 22-32 from July 4 into early September – cost them a shot at one of the top two seeds in the NL and home-field advantage. The Phillies had the best home record in baseball this season (55-26). That could be the decisive factor in this close-call matchup. PHILLIES IN FIVE