SERIES SCHEDULE (all times PT)
Game 1: at Braves, Saturday, 5:07 p.m., TBS
Game 2: at Braves, Sunday, 4:37 p.m., TBS
Game 3: at Dodgers, Tuesday, 2:08 p.m., TBS
x-Game 4: at Dodgers, Wednesday, 5:08 p.m., TBS
x-Game 5: at Dodgers, Thursday, 5:08 p.m., TBS
x-Game 6: at Braves, Oct. 23, 2:08 p.m. (5:08 if no ALCS G7), TBS
x-Game 7: at Braves, Oct. 24, 4:38 p.m., TBS
x- if necessary
Season series: The Dodgers won the regular-season series, 4-2.
TALE OF THE TAPE (OFFENSE)
Braves (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)
88-73 (1st in NL East) … record … 106-56 (2nd in NL West)
790 (3rd) … Runs scored … 830 (1st)
.319 (6th) … OBP … .330 (2nd)
.435 (2nd) … Slugging Pct … .429 (4th)
.754 (T-4th) … OPS … .759 (T-2nd)
.244 (T-5th) … Batting Avg. … .244 (T-5th)
239 (2nd) … HRs … 237 (3rd)
59 (11th) … SBs … 65 (9th)
TALE OF THE TAPE (PITCHING)
Braves (NL rank) … category … Dodgers (NL rank)
3.88 (4th) … Team ERA … 3.01 (1st)
3.84 (4th) … Starters ERA … 2.93 (1st)
3.97 (6th) … Bullpen ERA … 3.16 (2nd)
1.32 (8th) … WHIP … 1.10 (1st)
9.04 (7th) … Ks per 9 inns … 9.91 (2nd)
PROJECTED LINEUPS
BRAVES: SS Dansby Swanson (.248/.311/.449, 27 HRs, 88 RBIs, 9 SBs), 1B Freddie Freeman (.300/.393/.503, 31 HRs, 83 RBIs), 2B Ozzie Albies (.259/.310/.488, 30 HRs, 106 RBIs, 20 SBs), 3B Austin Riley (.303/.367/.531, 33 HRs, 107 RBIs), RF Joc Pederson (.238/.310/.422, 18 HRs, 61 RBIs), LF Adam Duvall (.228/.281/.491, 38 HRs, 113 RBIs), C Travis d’Arnaud (.220/.284/.388, 7 HRs, 26 RBIs), CF Cristian Pache (.111/.152/.206, 1 HR, 4 RBIs) or Guillermo Heredia (.220/.311/.354, 5 HRs, 26 RBIs)
DODGERS: RF Mookie Betts (.264/.367/.487, 23 HRs, 58 RBIs, 93 runs, 10 SBs), SS Corey Seager (.306/.394/.521, 16 HRs, 57 RBIs), 2B Trea Turner (.328/.375/.536, 28 HRs, 77 RBIs, 107 runs, 32 SBs), 3B Justin Turner (.278/.361/.471, 27 HRs, 87 RBIs), C Will Smith (.258/.365/.495, 25 HRs, 76 RBIs), CF Gavin Lux (.242/.328/.364, 7 HRs, 46 RBIs), LF AJ Pollock (.297/.355/.536, 21 HRs, 69 RBIs), 1B Cody Bellinger (.165/.240/.302, 10 HRs, 36 RBIs)
The Braves lost their best player, Ronald Acuña Jr., for the season when he tore the ACL in his right knee in early July. They had already lost Marcell Ozuna to a hand injury in May, then he was placed on administrative leave pending an investigation of a domestic violence incident. GM Alex Anthopoulos rebuilt the outfield at the trade deadline, acquiring Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall and Jorge Soler (who remains in COVID protocol as the NLCS begins). But it has been the best infield in baseball that has carried the offense. Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley combined for 121 home runs with 2020 MVP Freeman (El Modena High), Albies and Riley all worthy of MVP consideration this season. Even with the Acuña and Ozuna losses, the Braves were as potent as any offense in the National League behind the Giants and Dodgers.
Six games into their postseason run, the Dodgers have learned one thing for sure about their lineup – it is not the same without Max Muncy (out with an injured elbow). They were shut out twice by the Giants in the NLDS, but they showed up often enough to win that series. EDGE: EVEN
STARTING PITCHERS
BRAVES: LH Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.7 Ks per 9 IP), RH Huascar Ynoa (4-6, 4.05 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.9 Ks per 9 IP) or LH Drew Smyly (11-4, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.3 Ks per 9 IP)
DODGERS: RH Max Scherzer (15-4, 2.46 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 11.8 Ks per 9 IP), RH Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 9.2 Ks per 9 IP), LH Julio Urias (20-3, 2.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Tony Gonsolin (4-1, 3.23 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.5 Ks per 9 IP)
When these two teams met in the NLCS a year ago, the Braves’ starting pitching had dissolved on them. Rookies Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson started games against the Dodgers. Only Anderson will make the sequel. Wright spent most of 2021 in Triple-A while Wilson was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The two veterans – Max Fried and Charlie Morton – are the Braves’ best hopes to get a dominant pitching performance. Former Harvard-Westlake star Fried will start the series opener. He led the majors with a 1.74 ERA after the All-Star break, going 8-2 with 13 quality starts in 14 outings, then he threw six shutout innings with nine strikeouts in Atlanta’s Game 2 win against Milwaukee in the NLDS. Morton has become an outstanding postseason performer with a 2.52 ERA over his past eight appearances – including three World Series outings against the Dodgers (two in 2017 with the Houston Astros, one last year with Tampa Bay). Beyond those three, however, the Braves could resort to a “bullpen game” at least once.
The Braves aren’t alone in being unable to match the Dodgers’ starting trio of Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias. Those three give the Dodgers a leg up in any postseason series – even if likely Game 1 starter Scherzer will be starting the opener two days after his “Party tonight, figure it out tomorrow” pledge in San Francisco. EDGE: DODGERS
BULLPEN
BRAVES: LH Will Smith (3-7, 3.44 ERA, 37 saves, 6 blown saves, 1.13 WHIP, 11.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Jesse Chavez (3-2, 2.14 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.8 Ks per 9 IP), LH Tyler Matzek (0-4, 2.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.0 Ks per 9 IP), RH Luke Jackson (2-2, 1.98 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH A.J. Minter (3-6, 3.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.8 Ks per 9 IP), RH Chris Martin (2-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH Dylan Lee (0-0, 9.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 13.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Jacob Webb (5-4, 4.19 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.7 Ks per 9 IP), RH Richard Rodriguez (5-4, 2.94 ERA, 14 saves, 3 blown saves, 0.93 WHIP, 5.9 Ks per 9 IP)
DODGERS: RH Kenley Jansen (4-4, 2.22 ERA, 38 saves, 5 blown saves, 1.04 WHIP, 11.2 Ks per 9 IP), RH Blake Treinen (6-5, 7 saves, 1.99 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP), RH Corey Knebel (4-0, 2.45 ERA, 3 saves, 0.97 WHIP, 10.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Brusdar Graterol (3-0, 4.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.3 Ks per 9 IP), RH Joe Kelly (2-0, 2.86 ERA, 2 saves, 0.98 WHIP, 10.2 Ks per 9 IP), LH Alex Vesia (3-1, 2.25 ERA, 1 save, 0.98, 12.2 Ks per 9 IP), RH Phil Bickford (4-2, 2.81 ERA, 1 save, 1.07 WHIP, 10.3 Ks per 9 IP), LH David Price (5-2, 4.03 ERA, 1 save, 1.43 WHIP, 7.1 Ks per 9 IP)
The Braves’ bullpen was an unremarkable group for most of the season but it has come together of late. During their four-game NLDS victory over the Brewers, the quintet of Jesse Chavez, A.J. Minter, Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek (Capistrano Valley High) and closer Will Smith combined for 13-2/3 scoreless innings with 17 strikeouts and only nine hits allowed. They shut out the Brewers in the two middle games.
The Dodgers’ bullpen, meanwhile, has given Manager Dave Roberts more options than he has ever had in a previous postseason. From Brusdar Graterol throwing 102.5 mph (as he did in Game 4) to Blake Treinen’s otherworldly stuff and Kenley Jansen (pitching as well as he has in a postseason since 2017), the Dodgers present serious problems for opposing teams late in games. Counting Corey Knebel’s “opening” act and Scherzer’s one-inning save (but not counting Urias’ mid-game start), Dodgers relievers pitched 22 innings in the wild-card game and five-game NLDS, allowing three runs (a 1.23 ERA) on 12 hits and two walks while striking out 26. EDGE: DODGERS
BENCH
BRAVES: IF Orlando Arcia (.214/.282/.343, 2 HRs, 13 RBIs), IF-OF Eddie Rosario (.259/.305/.435, 14 HRs, 62 RBIs), OF Heredia or Pache, IF-OF Ehire Adrianza (.247/.327/.401, 5 HRs, 28 RBIs), C William Contreras (.215/.303/.399, 8 HRs, 23 RBIs), OF Jorge Soler (.223/.316/.432, 27 HRs, 70 RBIs)
DODGERS: IF-OF Chris Taylor (.254/.344/.438, 20 HRs, 73 RBIs, 13 SBs), C Austin Barnes (.215/.299/.345, 6 HRs), 1B Albert Pujols (.236/.284/.433, 17 HRs, 50 RBIs), 1B Matt Beaty (.270/.363/.402, 7 HRs, 40 RBIs), 1B-OF Billy McKinney (.192/.280/.358, 9 HRs, 27 RBIs), OF Steven Souza Jr. (.152/.222/.333, 1 HR, 3 RBIs)
There is a chance Soler can return from the COVID protocols at some point during the NLCS. If he does, the Braves’ bench becomes stronger. But the only real threat among the group is Pederson, who can be deployed as a pinch-hitter when he doesn’t start against a Dodgers lefty (Urias). Albert Pujols will likely get a start against Fried or Smyly (if he starts a game), and Chris Taylor will likely find himself in the starting lineup at times with AJ Pollock on the bench. EDGE: DODGERS
MANAGERS
BRAVES: Brian Snitker, sixth season (441-390, .531), fourth postseason (14-11, .560)
DODGERS: Dave Roberts, sixth season (542-330, .622), sixth postseason (39-27, .591)
With a long career in the minor leagues behind him, Snitker was an unexpected old-school choice as the Braves manager. But he has had a winning touch. The Braves have won four consecutive NL East titles under his leadership. Only seven managers have led their team to four or more consecutive first-place finishes (division or league) – including Bobby Cox with the Braves and … Roberts with the Dodgers.
By contrast, Roberts is very much a new-age manager. Obscured by the heavy hand of the front office in daily decision-making are some of his assets – including an openness to the ideas proposed by the front office and an ability to sell his players on those ideas. EDGE: DODGERS
SERIES PREDICTION
If the Braves were still in the NL West (as they were from 1969 through 1993, defying geography), they would have finished 18 games behind the Dodgers and 19 behind the Giants. But 88 wins were enough to take the title in an NL East where only one other team had a winning record (the 82-80 Phillies). Like the Dodgers’ wild-card opponent, the St. Louis Cardinals, the Braves saved their best for last, going 36-18 after Aug. 1 and then eliminating the Brewers in four games in their NLDS. The Dodgers are not the weak-hitting Brewers, however, and might have already survived what was the toughest challenge they will face this postseason. PICK: DODGERS IN SIX