After bulldozing through the Wild Card, NLDS and NLCS rounds, the Los Angeles Dodgers now face their ultimate test against a Toronto Blue Jays team that just won’t go away. The defending champion Dodgers crushed the Milwaukee Brewers in a four-game sweep, but Canada’s comeback kids survived a seven-game war with Seattle, bringing to the table something that the Brewers couldn’t — an offense that punishes mistakes from opposing pitching.
This is the matchup baseball fans everywhere have been waiting for — elite starting pitching against one of the best contact-hitting clubs in the MLB. And it all starts Friday night in Toronto.
A Deadly Arsenal of Starting Pitching
The starting four of Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani have been nothing short of spectacular and are arguably one of the best combinations in playoff history. With a combined 1.40 ERA and 81 strikeouts across 64-1/3 innings, they’ve held opponents to a meager .132/.207/.201 slash line. The question isn’t whether this rotation is good — it’s whether the Blue Jays can even touch them.
But here’s the caveat: Toronto doesn’t strike out. The Blue Jays have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball and the best contact rate against pitches outside the zone. When most teams are flailing at Yamamoto’s splitter or Ohtani’s triple-digit heater, Toronto batters simply put the ball in play.
Three of the Dodgers’ four starters have chase rates in the top 35 percent of the MLB. What happens when the Blue Jays make contact? That’s the billion-dollar question for this series.
The Vlad Jr. Dilemma
Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is scorching hot at exactly the wrong time for Dodger pitchers. The Blue Jays’ superstar is slashing a ridiculous .442/.510/.930 this postseason with six home runs and just three strikeouts all month. He’s obliterated elite pitching from the Yankees and Mariners, and now he gets four games against what might be the best rotation in baseball postseason history.
Skipper Dave Roberts and the Los Angeles brain trust face a brutal strategic dilemma: Do you pitch to Guerrero and risk watching him launch moonshots, or do you pitch around him and let Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement beat you? There’s no easy answer.
The Dodgers will likely take their chances avoiding confrontation with Vlad whenever possible, banking on their pitching to neutralize everyone else. It’s a high-stakes gamble that could define the series.
The Ohtani Factor
After delivering arguably the greatest individual playoff performance in baseball history during the NLCS clincher, two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani gets to do it all over again on the biggest stage. The layoff between series should benefit his pitching arm, and if Game 4 against Milwaukee was any indication, he’s heating up at the plate at exactly the right moment.
Ohtani will get at least one start on the mound in this series, possibly two depending on how things unfold. His ability to impact the game on both sides of the ball makes him unlike any weapon in World Series history. Toronto has seen plenty of elite pitching this October, but they haven’t seen anything quite like a fully operational Ohtani who can homer off you and then strike out the side in the bottom half of the inning.
The Los Angeles Bullpen
If the Blue Jays have a path to victory, it might be through the Los Angeles bullpen. While Roki Sasaki has emerged as a late-inning force with saves in five of the team’s nine postseason wins, the supporting cast is still suspect. Toronto’s contact-heavy approach could expose this weakness if they can chase L.A.’s starters early and force Roberts to dip into his relief corps.
The Jays averaged 6.5 runs per game through the ALDS and ALCS by grinding out at-bats and capitalizing on mistakes. The Brewers couldn’t score enough to test the Dodgers’ bullpen depth, but Toronto has the offensive firepower to exploit those late-game vulnerabilities. Louis Varland, Jeff Hoffman and a quartet of southpaw relievers give Toronto manager John Schneider plenty of weapons to counter the Dodgers’ left-handed power-hitting threats.
Looking Ahead
Vegas has the Dodgers as heavy favorites, and for good reason. They’re rested, healthy, rolling and hunting history as potential back-to-back champions. But Toronto’s determination suggests this group possesses something special. They are the only team ever to win a best-of-seven after dropping the first two at home and trailing late in Game 7.
Snell will likely get the nod for Game 1 against Kevin Gausman on Friday night. The Dodgers won two of three against Toronto back in August, but October baseball is a different beast entirely.
If L.A.’s rotation maintains its historic dominance and Ohtani continues his two-way wizardry, they’ll cement their position as one of baseball’s top dynasties. But if Guerrero Jr. and Company stay hot at the dish, we might be in for a classic confrontation that goes the distance.