One last look at LA’s payroll on the eve of spring training games started, with new signings and comments from MLB commissioner Rob Manfred.
The start of spring training brought two more signings by the Dodgers, bringing back both Clayton Kershaw and Kiké Hernández on one-year deals. That gives us one more chance to take a look at the estimated Dodgers payroll before the opening day roster finalized.
Hernández signed for $6.5 million on February 11, and Kershaw signed for $7.5 million two days later. Kershaw can earn up to an additional $8.5 million in bonuses, but those will be added once they are earned. Kershaw will start the season on the injured list while rehabbing from left foot surgery.
I’m assuming that relievers Evan Phillips (tear in his rotator cuff in October) and Michael Kopech (forearm inflammation) will begin the season on the injured list based on reports earlier in camp, which would open up two bullpen slots on the active roster.
Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register talked to Kopech Monday, and when brining up the possibility of opening the season on the injured list, the right-hander said, “More than likely. I don’t really know. Things could happen quickly and I could be ready for our home opener. I’m not really sure, though, so it’s hard for me to say that definitively and be sure about it.”
The Dodgers sent cash to the Cubs in the trade of Ryan Brasier, who is making $4.5 million this season. But that amount has not yet been reported. Whatever the Dodgers sent to the Cubs will count against LA’s payroll.
With a few other pitchers sure to open on the injured list while rehabbing from surgeries, in addition to Gavin Stone and River Ryan, who were already placed on the 60-day IL, the Dodgers have 23 healthy players under contract potentially on the active roster.
Thirteen of those are position players, so we’ll stick with them as the active roster for now. Newcomer Hyeseong Kim, who will play second base, third base, and center field this spring, can technically be optioned despite his three-year, $12.5 million contract. If, for example, outfielder Andy Pages beats Kim out for the roster spot, it would just add one more major league salary to the payroll. Pages, with under a year of service time, will likely make something a bit over the minimum salary of $760,000 in 2025.
For the moment, I estimate the Dodgers payroll for competitive balance tax purposes of $388.6 million to start the season.
That Dodgers payroll would be a major league record, surpassing the 2023 Mets ($374.7 million). Given that Los Angeles has already paid the competitive balance tax four years in a row, as a multiple-repeat payer they are subject to higher tax rates at each CBT threshold, beginning at $241 million this year. For anything over $301 million in 2025, the Dodgers are taxed at 110 percent.
A payroll of $388.6 million would incur a competitive balance tax of $137.8 million. The Dodgers last year paid a record $103 million in luxury tax.
Counting payroll and luxury tax, the Dodgers would spend a total of $525.6 million, making for baseball’s first $500 million payroll.
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, speaking Tuesday at Cactus League media day in Phoenix, talked about the Dodgers’ spending. From Bob Nightengale of USA Today:
“The Dodgers have gone out and done everything possible,’’ Manfred said, “always within the rules that currently exist, to put the best possible team on the field. I think that’s a great thing for the game. That type of competitive spirit is what people want to see. …
“If I’m going to be critical of something, it’s not going to be the Dodgers. It’s going to be the system.’’