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“If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”
– Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman
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A proverb to remember when Dodgers fans consider free agent options for the team’s 2023 and future rosters. And, words that Friedman would do well to remember as he retools the team in pursuit of future World Series. That axiom resulted in the contracts for Mookie Betts, Trevor Bauer (cringe), and Freddie Freeman – but a seemingly rational approach that put Corey Seager into a Texas Rangers uniform in 2022.
That being said, Friedman and the Dodgers foray into the current free agent market may be complicated by internal and external payroll issues. The internal issue may be a self-imposed cap on 2023 total team payroll at, or below the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold of $233 million. Considering the players who will be eligible for free agency after the 2023 and 2024* seasons, it would be prudent for the Dodgers to reset their tax penalties to zero by restraining spending now to be aggressive in next two years.
The external issue is the pending Trevor Bauer arbitration decision. Fangraphs forecasts the Dodgers 2023 payroll just under $169 million (including projected salaries of currently rostered players). When the Clayton Kershaw contract is formalized, the payroll will be ~ $190 million. Should the arbitration panel reduce Bauer’s suspension to one year the team payroll could increase by his $32M to $222 million — just $11 million below the 2023 CBT threshold. (Note: Bauer has the option of a $15M buyout)
Until the Bauer arbitration decision is final, do not expect the team to make any major free agent signings. If his two-year suspension is upheld, the Dodgers decision tree goes in a more aggressive direction; if reduced to one year, the Dodgers will be much more conservative participants.
So, who which free agent(s) will the Dodgers sign for the 2023 season?
Conservative/moderate approach – (Bauer suspension reduced to one year, he exercises $15M buyout and becomes free agent. Team does not re-sign Trea Turner, or any of the high profile shortstops).
Starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard – (Dodgers pitching gurus work their magic and return Thor to top of rotation performance).
Left Fielder Michael Conforto (caveat, if healthy) – Motivation playing for big 2024 free agent contract. Dodgers hitting coaches help him return to big, left-handed bat output.
Third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson – hitting coaches work their magic
Syndergaard, Conforto, and Anderson – lower base salaries with playing time incentives. Aggressive approach (MLB wins Bauer arbitration)
Shortstop Carlos Correa – put him in Dodger uniform and all is forgiven
In either scenario, look for the Dodgers to be active in the trade market to finish the roster renovation, the subject of our next article.
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* The 2023-24 free agent class: third basemen Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, and Manny Machado (player option); pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani; and, pitchers Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, and their own Julio Urias. 2024-25 may be one of the best starting pitcher free agent classes in MLB history: Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Corbin Burns, Gerritt Cole (player option), Max Fried, Tyler Glasgnow, Eric Lauer, Pablo Lopez, Brandon Woodruff, et al.
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