LOS ANGELES — It started with a bang – two of them – but Shohei Ohtani’s postseason has turned into an extended whimper.
Ohtani hit two home runs in the Dodgers’ first postseason game, a Wild Card Series victory over the Cincinnati Reds. But he has gone 2 for 22 since then, including 1 for 18 with nine strikeouts in the four-game National League Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
“We’re not going to win the World Series with that sort of performance,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Saturday. “So we’re counting on a recalibration, getting back into the strike zone, and understanding when he faces left-handed pitching what they’re gonna try to do – crowd him in, off (the plate), spin him away. He’s just gotta be better at managing the hitting zone.
“I’m counting on it. We’re all counting on it.”
During the regular season, Ohtani was not particularly vulnerable to left-handed pitching. He batted just four points lower against lefties (.279 vs. .283 against right-handers). Fifteen of his 55 home runs came off left-handed pitchers. Only one left-handed hitter hit more left-on-left home runs (Kyle Schwarber, 23). Only two left-handed hitters (Schwarber and Cody Bellinger) had a higher OPS against left-handed pitching than Ohtani’s .898.
During the postseason, though, Ohtani has been fed a steady diet of left-handed pitching and has not handled it as well. He is 1 for 16 with eight strikeouts against seven different lefties – Christopher Sanchez (0 for 6, four strikeouts), Jesus Luzardo (0 for 4, two strikeouts), Matt Strahm (1 for 2 with an RBI single and strikeout), Ranger Suarez (0 for 1), Tanner Banks (0 for 1) with the Phillies, Brent Suter (a strikeout) and Nick Lodolo (0 for 1) with the Reds.
More precisely, Ohtani saw an awful lot of the kind of left-handers he does not hit well. A graphic on MLB Network via Statcast before Game 4 against the Phillies showed that Ohtani hits .221 with a slugging percentage of .317 against left-handed pitchers with lower arm angles (under 38 degrees) compared to a .317 average and .739 slugging percentage against lefties with higher arm angles.
Five of the seven lefties he has faced in the postseason – all but Banks and Suter (for one at-bat each) – have arm angles below 38 degrees.
Roberts has acknowledged facing those left-handers “is part of” the fuel behind Ohtani’s slump. But he also said Ohtani’s “decision-making hasn’t been good” when it comes to his game plan at the plate.
“He’s really not giving himself a chance to hit a mistake (by being overly aggressive),” Roberts said during the NLDS.
The steady diet of left-handers he does not see well has exacerbated that poor decision-making.
“I think a lot of it actually was driven by the left-handed pitching. And even with that, he wasn’t as bad during the regular season as he was in the postseason versus those guys,” Roberts said. “Certainly, whatever opponent we face (in the NLCS), they’re gonna try to put as many lefties on Shohei (as they can). But hoping that he can do a little self-reflecting on that series, and how aggressive he was outside of the strike zone, passive in the zone. Just the at-bat quality needs to get better.
“I think it started out with the unfavorable matchups. I thought in the Wild Card Series, he was fine. They weren’t gonna let him beat them. And I thought from the first pitch on in that Division Series, chasing in, off (the plate) kind of set the tone for that series.”
A year ago, Ohtani got off to a similarly poor start in the NLDS against the San Diego Padres – 4 for 20 with 10 strikeouts and just one extra-base hit (a three-run home run in Game 1). He was better after that (10 for 41), particularly in the NLCS against the New York Mets (8 for 22 with two home runs).
Roberts said he hopes Ohtani can make the same “recalibration” for this year’s NLCS. But there is a complicating factor – the Dodgers are asking him to pitch this fall.
Ohtani struck out four times during his Game 1 start against the Phillies (three on called third strikes) and Roberts acknowledged he sees a different approach at the plate when Ohtani is also pitching.
“Yeah, I think it’s true,” Roberts said. “(When) he’s pitching, he’s probably trying to conserve energy, not trying to get into at-bats. It hasn’t been good when he’s pitched. I do think that’s part of it. We’ve got to think through this and come up with a better game plan.”
Ohtani also hasn’t been a good hitter the day after he pitches. Seven of his 15 starts this year (including the NLDS) came with the Dodgers having an off day the next day. When he did bat the day after a pitching start, he was just 5 for 34 (.147).
That figures to play into the Dodgers’ pitching plans for the NLCS (regardless of opponent). There is no off day between Games 1 and 2 as there was during the NLDS, giving the Dodgers reason to start Blake Snell in Game 1 on Monday and hold Ohtani for Game 2 on Tuesday – with an off day Wednesday.
Roberts would not name the Dodgers’ Game 1 starter on Saturday, saying the team was still thinking through the options. But he didn’t hesitate to say what the Dodgers need from Ohtani in his other job.
“Hopefully with the hitting guys, himself, learning from that past series, and getting better,” Roberts said. “Because we’re gonna need him to be better.”