The Dodgers have added Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki to a rotation already expected to return Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. Injured righties Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are both in line to be ready for Opening Day as well. That’s six viable rotation arms, before even accounting for younger pitchers who’ve now been pushed into depth roles: Bobby Miller, Justin Wrobleski, Landon Knack and Ben Casparius among them.
Despite that stock of arms, the organization still seems open to and likely to re-sign lefty Clayton Kershaw. General manager Brandon Gomes said yesterday that the newcomers on the pitching staff haven’t altered the team’s interest in Kershaw (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). Kershaw, 37 in March, is recovering surgery to repair a torn meniscus and a second surgery to address bone spurs and a ruptured plantar plate in his foot. He’s working through a throwing program but is not yet pitching off a mound, per Gomes.
In each of the past two offseasons, there’s been at least a bit of intrigue as to where the future Hall of Famer might sign. It was a two-team market in those instances, with Kershaw expected to either remain in L.A. or sign a short-term deal with the Rangers, who play within driving distance of his Texas home. After the Dodgers captured a World Series title last year, however, Kershaw declared himself a “Dodger for life.” He subsequently reiterated to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya not long after that he planned to be back with the Dodgers for an 18th season in 2025.
Given that a reunion is something of a fait accompli, it seems there’s no rush to get a contract finalized. Kershaw declined a player option back in November. The two parties are widely expected to work out a new arrangement. From the Dodgers’ vantage point, it’d be beneficial to hold off on formalizing anything until spring training has commenced. They’re already facing a 40-man roster crunch with the looming but not-yet-finalized deals with Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates.
The Dodgers need to open one 40-man spot for that pair — they’re currently at 39 players — and re-signing Kershaw now would mean jettisoning a second 40-man player. If he signs after camp opens, though, the Dodgers will be able to accommodate his addition by placing an injured player on the 60-day IL. The Dodgers have a whopping five pitchers who are on the 40-man and recovering from major surgeries. Brusdar Graterol will miss the first half of the season following shoulder surgery. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and could miss the entire 2025 season. Each of River Ryan (Aug. 25), Kyle Hurt (July 30) and Emmet Sheehan (May 16) had Tommy John surgery last year. They’ll all very likely be placed on the 60-day IL at some point.
The aforementioned knee and foot injuries, paired with Kershaw’s rehab from Nov. 2023 shoulder surgery, combined to limit the three-time Cy Young winner to just 30 innings in 2024. He posted a 4.50 ERA with an 18% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate, showing strong command but uncharacteristically low swing-and-miss abilities. Kershaw’s fastball sat at a career-low 89.9 mph on average last season, and his slider and curveball each saw a dip in velo as well (particularly the latter).
There’s no telling the extent to which he can regain some of the lost velocity, but from 2019-23, Kershaw notched a 2.77 ERA and 27.5% strikeout rate over 616 1/3 innings even while averaging just 90.7 mph on his heater. He doesn’t need to get his velocity back up to or even close to its 93-94 mph peak to have success. The Dodgers are in the top tier of luxury penalization yet again, so any dollars allocated to Kershaw will come with a 110% tax.