When Dustin May takes the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers, his electric stuff is undeniable — a high-90s sinker with exceptional movement, a devastating curveball and a cutter that keeps hitters constantly off-balance. Although his velocity isn’t quite as high as the days before his last elbow surgery, his spin rate is still as impressive as ever. Yet the right-hander’s career has been defined as much by his time in the trainer’s room as his time on the pitching rubber.
After undergoing UCL surgery in 2021 and experiencing subsequent setbacks with his elbow, back and esophagus, May’s health represents perhaps the biggest question mark for his future. With the 2025 season progressing, each start becomes increasingly significant as the 27-year-old hurler approaches free agency at season’s end.
May’s injury history reads like a medical textbook — Tommy John surgery that cost him most of 2021 and 2022, followed by a flexor tendon strain in his right elbow that limited him to just nine appearances in 2023, and emergency esophagus surgery that ultimately curtailed his comeback last year. When healthy, May has shown flashes of brilliance, including a 2.57 ERA across 12 starts in 2020 and moments of pure dominance where his pitches move in ways that defy physics. But staying healthy is his biggest concern right now, as his track record raises legitimate concerns about his long-term durability.
The Case for Keeping Big Red
Re-signing May seems unlikely given the team’s current rotation investments and depth. With Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell locked into massive long-term deals, Tyler Glasnow signed through 2027 and Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki just beginning his MLB journey, the top of the rotation appears set for years to come. Add in Shohei Ohtani‘s eventual return to two-way duties next season and promising young arms like Gavin Stone, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan recovering from their own injuries, and the rotation begins to look downright crowded.
The Los Angeles front office has shown remarkable financial flexibility, but even they must prioritize their investments. May’s upside remains tantalizing, but committing significant resources to another injury-prone starter when they’ve already assumed considerable risk with their current rotation might prove fiscally irresponsible, especially with Clayton Kershaw‘s future also still unresolved. To boot, Tony Gonsolin will return to the team before he becomes free-agent eligible at the end of the 2026 season.
When Patience Becomes Strategy
The path of least resistance would be allowing May to play out his final arbitration year and test the open market. This approach carries minimal risk for the organization while giving them an extended look at his health and performance throughout 2025. The qualifying offer system could ensure the Dodgers receive draft compensation should May sign elsewhere (if they do end up offering him one), softening the blow of losing a homegrown talent.
For May, free agency presents both opportunity and challenge. A healthy, productive season could position him for a significant payday, perhaps from a team willing to bet on his upside despite his medical history. However, another injury-plagued campaign could severely limit his options and earning potential. At 28, he would still be young enough to secure a multi-year deal, but the “high-risk, high-reward” label would follow him into negotiations.
Dealing a Potentially Valuable Resource Before Summer’s End
Trading May before the 2025 summer deadline seems borderline insane given last season’s pitching shortage that forced the Dodgers to employ endless bullpen games throughout their postseason run. However, Andrew Friedman has never shied away from bold moves, and if May demonstrates good health through July, his value could be substantial to pitching-hungry contenders.
The team’s depth chart continues to evolve, and by mid-summer, the team’s most pressing needs will become evident. Perhaps a bonafide third baseman, yet another power bat or middle infield depth emerges as a critical weakness.
May, if he lives up to his potential through mid-August, could bring back a significant return that addresses such deficiencies. The risk, of course, is a repeat of another rotation depletion, but the organization’s willingness to adapt on the fly has become their hallmark.
The Road Ahead
Whatever the Dodgers ultimately decide regarding May’s future, the power rests substantially in the pitcher’s own hands – or rather, his golden arm. A healthy, consistent season would force the organization into difficult conversations about May’s value. Another injury-marred campaign would likely seal his departure.
For now, May must focus solely on the present — building stamina, maintaining mechanics and proving his durability over a full season. In baseball’s “what have you done for me lately” culture, recency bias will heavily influence his next contract, whether in Los Angeles or elsewhere. The big question is whether May’s body will finally allow that talent to flourish over the long haul.