In addition to all of the other aspects that have made this Dodgers-Giants season/pennant race/Division Series drama the best in the proud heritage of baseball’s best rivalry, we could have had the most second-guessable decision in this series’ history.
(And before you start complaining about that “best rivalry ever” designation, Yankees and Red Sox fans, why don’t you bring the intensity and ill feelings for 130-some years instead of just a few decades, and then come back and see us.)
The moment it was announced Thursday morning that Dave Roberts would start an “opener” over a 20-game winner in the most important game of the season, he ran the risk of becoming the latest Dodgers manager to outthink himself out of a World Series. Except, well, it wasn’t completely his decision.
And anyway, Corey Knebel instead of Julio Urías worked. The “what were you thinking?” tweets of the afternoon turned into opportunities for Dodger fans to troll their Northern California compatriots at the end of the series-clinching 2-1 victory Thursday night in San Francisco.
In a sense, the strategy was perfectly symbolic of 21st-century baseball, if certainly not the Vince Lombardi “here we come, try and stop us” sort of approach Roberts talked about after Tuesday night’s Game 4.
It was a dare to Giants manager Gabe Kapler, a reaction to platoon lineups and lefty/righty matchups, and it worked in the sense that Kapler had to burn two of his platoon players, Tommy La Stella and Mike Yastrzemski, by using them against Knabel and Brusdar Graterol and yanking them when Urías entered in the third. It was also a reaction to any familiarity the Giants might have with Urías, who had faced them five days ago and five times during the regular season.
Urias wound up giving up a run and three hits in his four innings, and was a strong link in the chain that led to Blake Treinen in the seventh, Kenley Jansen in the eighth and Max Scherzer in the ninth.
“I thought Corey did a really nice job of getting out of that inning,” Roberts said afterward, noting that Knebel gave up a two-out double to Buster Posey but struck out Brandon Crawford to escape. “I don’t think he had really good fastball command and they took some good swings, but fortunately we got out of it.
“I liked the run right there that Brusdar had (in the second), for him to put up a zero and kind of clear the pitcher’s spot, and give Julio a run. And he went four innings and got us deep into the game, and he pitched his tail off. (It’s) certainly unconventional, but I give him so much credit for taking the baseball when asked to and pitching really well.”
Most importantly, and not surprisingly, the pitching switch was a group decision. But it was surprising that Roberts acknowledged as much in his pregame session in the interview room at Oracle Park. Those references to “we” in the decision-making weren’t by accident, and Roberts elaborated when it was pointed out that most of the reaction on social media was putting the blame on the manager.
“It’s … from all the way to the tippy top of the Dodgers organization on down, it was a decision that we all made together,” he said.
Asked if he received more than one vote in this process, he said: “Do I – I do not get more than one vote. No, I don’t. No, I don’t.”
So we can assume that if there is a tiebreaking vote, it belongs to Andrew Friedman, though Friedman did tell media members afterward that “if anyone had dissented, we wouldn’t have done it.”
But that’s 21st-century baseball, and it’s not just a Dodger process. Throughout the industry, managers are hired to implement the front office’s vision, and the analysts who mine the data and suggest such innovations as, um, openers have an outsized role in strategic plans.
How many quants can weigh in on a decision and avoid getting second-guessed if it blows up? Who knows. In many cases, no one even knows who they are. Friedman was famous in Tampa Bay for hiring analysts from publications such as Baseball Prospectus or the Hardball Times on the condition that no one was to know they worked for the Rays. Likewise, the analysts who operate in the Dodger Stadium workspace formerly occupied by the old visitors’ clubhouse toil in anonymity.
Roberts was the one whose reputation was on the line, and that’s part of the manager’s job, regardless of the era. So how classic a second-guessable moment could this have been if it didn’t work?
Think back to 1951 and Game 3 of the tiebreaker in the Polo Grounds in New York. We know that Bobby Thomson hit the deciding home run off Ralph Branca. (We also should remember that the Giants got there thanks to the most audacious sign-stealing scheme this side of the the 2017 Astros, the brainchild of Leo Durocher.) What we forget is that Branca was called on by Manager Charlie Dressen to replace starter Don Newcombe and face Thomson, and it was mainly because bullpen coach Clyde Sukeforth informed Dressen that Clem Labine, a rookie with a 5-1 record and 2.20 ERA, had just bounced a curveball while warming up.
Nobody blamed the front office for that one, as far as we know. Similarly, nobody blamed General Manager Buzzie Bavasi in 1962 after another tiebreaker Game 3 against the Giants, this one at Dodger Stadium, when manager Walter Alston declined to use Don Drysdale – who was 25-9 and would win the Cy Young Award – in relief to protect a 4-2 lead in the ninth.
He was saving Drysdale for Game 1 of the World Series, only the Dodgers never got there. (And one of the most vocal second-guessers in the aftermath was Alston’s own third base coach, one Leo Ernest Durocher. What goes around comes around, right?)
The most striking aspect of this move, at least early on, was the way it was discussed on the Dodgers’ own TV network. Commentator Nomar Garciaparra, in particular, was fairly adamant that tinkering with the pitching choice could be a distraction, with players discussing the move instead of focusing on the task ahead. Orel Hershiser said, “I hope it’s not upsetting the locker room,” and Jerry Hairston supposed that pushing Urías back would have the Giants saying, “Boy, they’re scared of us.”
As it turns out, maybe it wasn’t wise to second-guess in advance. But the merry-go-round continues. After Scherzer’s 13 pitches in the ninth inning Thursday night, Roberts said he’s still in line to start Game 1 of the NL Championship Series Saturday night in Atlanta.
“As of now,” Roberts said, “that’s kind of where we’re at.”
In other words, if you’re writing it down it’s best to use a pencil rather than a pen.
jalexander@scng.com
@Jim_Alexander on Twitter