by Cary Osborne
In the name of “Home Run” Baker: What just happened?
Miguel Rojas will live the rest of his life as the owner of one of the most important home runs in Dodger history — and one of the most improbable.
Rojas is not a home run hitter. He has reached double digits in a season once in his 12 years in the big leagues. So when the Dodger infielder, the inspirational leader of the team, hit a two-strike, one-out solo home run to tie the score 4–4 in the top of the ninth inning off Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman on Saturday, it was stunning.
The Dodgers had an 8.7% win probability in Game 7 of the World Series when Rojas stepped in the batter’s box in Toronto, according to Statcast. It was 44.2% after.
Including his postseason plate appearances, Rojas had a 2.1% chance of hitting a home run (he had a 2.1% home run percentage this year). He had a 0.5% chance of hitting a home run off a right-hander. He hit one in 192 plate appearances this year leading into the at-bat against Hoffman.
The 36-year-old hadn’t hit a home run since Sept. 19.
Rojas hadn’t hit a home run in the ninth inning or later of a game since Sept. 3, 2019, when as a Miami Marlin he tied the score 4–4 with a solo home run in the ninth inning. The Marlins would go on to beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 5–4 in extra innings.
Rojas hit the 12th home run in World Series history that tied the score in the ninth inning. The first was by Frank “Home Run” Baker in Game 3 of the 1911 World Series.
Rojas is the only one to hit his tying homer in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series.
Rojas’ home run has the second-largest impact on the Dodgers’ winning the World Series ever, according to Baseball Reference’s championship-winning probability added stat. The fact that Rojas hit the homer in Game 7 adds to 34.9% swing. Will Smith’s 11th inning homer that gave the Dodgers a 5–4 lead has the all-time greatest impact on the Dodgers winning the World Series with a 41% increase.
The Dodgers won Game 7 by that 5–4 score.
Smith’s deserves its own spotlight. The Dodger catcher is definitively one of the most clutch hitters in franchise history.
Smith has 10 career postseason home runs — tied for seventh in Dodger history.
Rojas now has one career postseason home run as a Dodger — one of the greatest in Dodger history.
2025 World Series: The improbable, not impossible, home run was originally published in Dodger Insider on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.