2024 review: Bobby Miller

Bobby Miller had the sophomore slump to end all sophomore slumps for the Dodgers in 2024, posting league worsts in ERA and FIP for pitchers who pitched at least 50 innings.

In 2023, I thought I had seen the nadir of Dodger pitching in person with Noah Syndergaard. Bobby Miller had a historically poor season in 2024 as a new nadir was reached.

There is no sugarcoating Miller’s season. Miller pitched thirteen times for Dodgers in 2024. I had the rotten luck to be present for three of those starts. The phrase sophomore slump does not even begin to describe how awful it was to watch Bobby Miller pitch in 2024.

Here is how bad Miller was for those who want to skim or skip ahead: I forgot, repressed more like it, that I was at three Miller starts, thinking I had only been at two. It was a blur of tedious, awful baseball.

It is worth repeating that Bobby Miller was a solid rookie in 2023. He had 119 strikeouts in 124 1⁄3 innings of work, with a 3.76 ERA and a 3.51 FIP. Miller did flop in his only postseason start, but there was plenty to improve as the season began. He looked sharp in the preseason.

On March 29, in his first start of the year, at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, Miller arguably had his best start as a professional: a two-hit, 11-strikeout scoreless start over six innings leading to his first win in 2024.

In this start, Miller was efficient, dominant, and in complete command, which would be the last time in 2024. Miller’s next two starts were emblematic of his season as a whole.

Miller needed 58 pitches to get four outs while surrendering five runs at Wrigley against the Cubs. While Miller did have a marginal improvement against the Minnesota Twins, Miller went on the injured list for right shoulder inflammation shortly afterward.

Miller missed ten weeks and spoke to Kristen Watson about his shoulder injury upon the eve of his return, which started to flare up shortly after the Seoul Series and affected his mechanics going forward.

Before returning to major league action in Colorado, Miller had two rehab starts with Low-A Rancho Cucamonga and two with Triple-A Oklahoma City. These starts were uniformly bad, as Miller posted a 7.80 ERA over 15 innings of work. Alarmingly, he had eight walks to go with his ten strikeouts during this period.

At the time, Dave Roberts was optimistic.

“Physically, [Miller’s] in a good spot. He’s built up. I expect his focus will heighten in a major league game,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters on Tuesday in Denver, per SportsNet LA. “I don’t pay any mind to the results on the rehab side.”

Hindsight being what it is, Roberts should have paid some mind to the results of the rehab starts because Miller was rocked in his return in Denver.

One might have been tempted to blame Coors Field for the five-run, 6⅓-inning outing if it were not for the two-inning, 60-pitch outing against the historically bad Chicago White Sox I had the misfortune of sitting and live-tweeting through about a week later.

As painful as the White Sox start was to watch before another false start of hope against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the nadir of this period was a nine-run drubbing over four interminable innings against the Philadelphia Phillies just before the All-Star Break. After this start, Miller had an ERA over 8, a FIP over 6.25, and every batter was essentially hitting like Shohei Ohtani.

At a point in the season where quality starting pitching was as rare as good decisions at a bar at closing time, on July 10, Miller was optioned back to Triple-A to try and reset his season. To his credit, Miller acknowledged that he was not executing his pitches and was not getting ahead of hitters. Roberts was non-committal as to when Miller would return.

On July 20, Miller had five scoreless innings against Round Rock, striking out four, and he looked better than at any point in the past two months. However, Miller’s walk total did match his career-high of four, and things were starting to wobble by the end of his start.

As if on cue, Miller was roughed up for six runs in 3⅔ innings in his next start against Tacoma. During the Dodgers’ NL Central road trip through Milwaukee and St. Louis, the Dodgers desperately needed anyone to start due to injuries to the starting rotation. Miller and Justin Wrobleski were the last men standing on the 40-man roster available to start games in the minor leagues.

With Tyler Glasnow unavailable, Miller started against the St. Louis Cardinals on August 17. His mastery in March felt like a distant memory in the hot Missouri sun. Four wild pitches and plenty of loud contact over 4⅔ innings of interminable-to-watch work made for yet another lost outing for Miller.

Miller did rebound in his next two starts to have average starts against the Tampa Bay Rays (where hits and strikeouts abounded) and the Balitmore Orioles (where he earned his second and final win of the year). With the calendar turning to September, there was hope Miller could provide the Dodgers with any glimmer of hope of production for the stretch drive.

It was not to be.

Those hopes rapidly disappeared against the light-hitting Anaheim Angels and Chicago Cubs. Miller’s fastball was knocked all over the yard early and often by the Angels and the Dodgers’ offense had to bail Miller out against the Cubs, who gave up six runs in 4⅓ innings of work.

After the Cubs’ start, Miller said the following:

“It’s hard. I’m going through it right now, to say the least,” Miller said. “There’s no doubt in my mind I’m going out there and giving my all every single time out there. I’m trying to show up early every single day, putting the most amount of work in I possibly can, just trying to give them a good game every time I’m out there.

“I’m doing everything I can to have success out there. I’m giving it my all every single time I’m out there.”

Based on a dearth of any other options, Roberts committed to Miller having one more start against the worst team in the National League, the Miami Marlins, on September 17. If there was a time for Miller to show anything in the tank for the rest of the year, this start was it.

Here is how bad Miller was that afternoon in Miami.

By the time, I made it to my seat with a $3 hot dog, he was already cornered in the first inning. It took Miller 65 pitches to get through two innings of work against the National League’s worst team. He surrendered four runs and seven hits in what turned into a sloppy, wild game in Miami.

Everyone had finally and mercifully seen enough of Miller in 2024. While Miller remained confident that he would fix his mechanics, on September 18, the Dodgers optioned Miller back to Triple-A for Joe Kelly.

Miller did have a solid outing for Oklahoma City against Salt Lake in his final appearance of the year, striking out six over five innings. However, the Dodgers correctly opted for multiple bullpen games during the postseason run rather than relying on Bobby Miller.

After reading this exhaustive breakdown, one might have the following question, “What exactly was wrong with Bobby Miller in 2024?” For an in-depth answer to that question, I would recommend an essay by Josh Thomas of Dodgers Digest, who wrote a definite and exhaustive analysis of the mechanical changes on Miller’s delivery in November 2024.

To lessen the strain on Miller’s right shoulder, Miller and the Dodgers tweaked the mechanics of his delivery, from his placement on the rubber to how he threw the ball. The changes didn’t work; in fact, they backfired spectacularly.

Miller’s fastball, which had hitters batting .258 and slugging .367 in 2023 (think 2023-Miguel Cabrera), degenerated so that hitters were batting .327 and slugging .634 in 2024 (think 2024-Shohei Ohtani). Miller’s fastball was generally either uncompetitve or catching way too much of the plate, which is a bad combination against any major league hitter.

Looking at Baseball Savant, Miller’s velocity was still there, but everything else was not. It was a statistical improbability but here we are.

For the year, hitters had a gaudy slash line of .305/.571/.962 against Miller. Every hitter was essentially Ohtani against Miller. Miller was the worst Dodger in just about every major statistical pitching category in 2024. He gave up as many runs, home runs, wild pitches (or nearabouts) as Gavin Stone, Tyler Glasnow, 2023-Bobby Miller in less than half the innings pitched.

Miller had the worst ERA for a Dodgers’ starter, in the nearly 150 years of the franchise, with at least 10 starts in a season., eclipsing 2004-Hideo Nomo.

Like Chris Taylor, Bobby Miller finds himself at a crossroads in his career. Whether this year was an aberration or the new normal is entirely up to him. Fixing his fastball has to be the top priority. His floor is now likely trade piece for players who will help defend the Dodgers’ title. Whether he ends up like Miguel Vargas is an open question.

2024 particulars

Age: 25

Stats: 2-4, 56 IP, 52 K, 30 BB, 8.52 ERA, 6.97 FIP, 1.768 WHIP, -0.9 fWAR, -1.9 rWAR

Salary: $750,000

Game of the year

Miller’s game of the year was his first start of the year on March 29 against the Cardinals.

“It took me a while to realize [the changeup] was my best pitch. Coming up in the minor leagues I thought it was the slider, but turns out it was the changeup,” Miller said. “That’s a really good weapon for me against hitters, when a lot of guys are trying to be on time for a heater. I know I can sell it well, just like my fastball.”

[emphasis added.]

Roster status

Miller has one year, 116 days of service time, and two option years remaining.