ANAHEIM — With every home run, every stolen base and every sensational defensive play, Zach Neto tells us that he’s arrived.
The Angels’ shortstop missed much of his rookie season in 2023 with injuries, but since then he’s had two consecutive seasons as an everyday player, each time reaching 20 homers and 20 stolen bases.
Neto is just the 12th shortstop in major-league history to have multiple 20-20 seasons, and he’s one of only four to have more than one by his age-24 season. The others are Alex Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr. and Hanley Ramírez.
Neto, 24, is on plenty of similar “short lists,” all of which separate him from typical young major-leaguers.
Admiration of what he has done raises a natural question: How much better can he get?
“This is a pretty good level if it stayed right here for the rest of his career,” interim manager Ray Montgomery said. “It won’t. He’s capable of doing more, and he will. He’s playing shortstop at a high level. He’s an offensive force. He runs the bases great. His IQ is off the charts. Really, it’s up to him.”
Ask Neto what’s next, and he answers vaguely, with no specifics or numbers.
“Just trying to be more consistent,” he said. “Of course, you want to be perfect, right? You want to fix all your flaws that you had the year before, the past couple years. But, just trying to stay consistent, not trying to peak too high, not trying to dip too low. Just make sure you stay even keel with everything.”
None of us can see the future. But all of us can see history.
Using the tools at Baseball Reference, we can create buckets of players whose careers started in similar fashion to Neto’s, and then see what those players did past age 24.
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an imperfect stat, for sure. Still, it’s all we have to combine all attributes of a player’s performance – hitting, fielding and baserunning. WAR is also cumulative, so it measures quantity as well as quality.
Neto’s career WAR, according to Baseball-Reference, is 11.0, and he still has 35 games to play in his age-24 season.
In the last 50 years, only 130 position players have posted a WAR of at least 10.0 through their age-24 season.
At the upper end of that are the Hall of Fame-caliber players, starting with Neto’s teammate, Mike Trout. His WAR of 47.5 by age 24 is the highest of anyone in the last half-century. Ken Griffey Jr. had a WAR 37.1 by age 24.
The low end of that range is where you find players like Neto. There are 24 players who had a WAR between 10.0 and 12.0, and whose careers are now over.
That group had an average career WAR of 36.8, and they played until an average age of 34. To put that into an Angels perspective, that means the average player who starts his career like Neto ends up like Howie Kendrick (35.0).
That group includes a Hall of Famer like Andre Dawson and players who washed out by age 30, like Hank Blalock and Yasiel Puig.
Neto will most likely be somewhere in between.
Stretching the WAR net a little wider and including active players, we can find a group of players who started their careers like Neto and can offer plausible comps for where he could go next.
Troy Tulowitzki
Neto speaks to Tulowitzki regularly, and said he’s modeled himself after him, so this is a good place to start.
A product of Long Beach State, Tulowitzki was the seventh overall draft pick (Neto was 13th). He was the Colorado Rockies’ everyday shortstop at 22. His WAR was 13.7 through age 24. Like Neto, he also missed significant time with an injury in one of his first three seasons.
His age-25 season was his first of five All-Star appearances. It was his second of three straight seasons finishing in the top 10 in the MVP race.
Tulowitzki’s career was hampered by injuries in his 30s. Given that Neto has already had two significant injuries, Tulowitzki is a fair comp.
Tulowitzki ended up playing parts of 13 years in the majors, with a WAR of 44.8, which ranks 22nd among shortstops since 1900.
Dustin Pedroia
Like Neto, Pedroia was a middle infielder drafted out of college who was an everyday player by his age 23 season. The Boston Red Sox second baseman was the Rookie of the Year and then the MVP in 2007, in his age-24 season.
Pedroia’s WAR was 10.1 through age 24, and at that point in his career his offense was more valuable than his defense, just like Neto.
After age 24, Pedroia produced five more 5-WAR seasons. He remained a solid above-average regular through age 33, before knee injuries abruptly ended his career.
He finished with a career WAR of 51.8, which ranks 14th among modern second basemen.
Nolan Arenado
Arenado, 34, is still playing, for the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s got two seasons left on a nine-year, $275 million deal he signed with the Rockies after his age-27 season.
Arenado became an everyday player as a 22-year-old, and his WAR through age 24 was 12.5. His WAR on offense and defense was about equal at that point, a nod to his brilliant glove. Neto’s bat is worth about twice as much as his glove now, according to Baseball Reference.
Arenado has made eight All-Star teams. He continued churning out seasons of 4+ WAR through age 31. He’s declined in the last three years, and this season his WAR is 1.1, which makes him a below-average regular.
His career WAR of 57.6 ranks 14th among third basemen.
Bo Bichette
The Toronto Blue Jays’ shortstop is not a perfect comp for Neto. His career started off with better offense than Neto and worse defense, for an overall WAR through age 24 of 13.0.
However, Bichette is instructive because he’s only a few years ahead of Neto, so he’s worth watching from a financial standpoint.
In Bichette’s age-24 season, he produced a WAR of 3.7 and an OPS of .802. Neto’s current WAR is 4.5 and his OPS is .804.
That was the final season before arbitration for Bichette, as this is for Neto. The Blue Jays signed Bichette to a three-year, $33.6 million deal that winter. It didn’t lock him for any free-agent years, but gave them salary certainty through his arbitration years.
Since then, Bichette has had two very good seasons and one spoiled by injuries, and he’s about to hit free agency this winter. His current contract and his next one will be key data points in determining Neto’s value.
Raising the bar
At this point, the only practical reason to project what kind of player Neto will become is to figure out a way to keep him with the Angels beyond when he’ll be eligible for free agency, after the 2028 season.
Neto said there have been no talks with the Angels about an extension.
In the meantime, the price tag keeps going up.
“He’s raised the bar of expectations,” Montgomery said, “both on his production and how he goes about it.”
UP NEXT
Cubs (TBD) at Angels (LHP Tyler Anderson, 2-8, 4.77), 6:38 p.m. Friday, FanDuel Sports Network West, 830 AM