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Former Angels Top Prospect Is Finally Breaking Out

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At this point in his career, Jo Adell is a bust. However, the Angels have refused to give up on the former first round pick. And it looks as if their patience is being rewarded. Adell’s breakout April is reminding the organization why he was such a highly regarded prospect. There’s a reason former manager Phil Nevin once compared his talent to the legendary Mike Trout.

“You watch [Adell] take BP, he hits the ball farther than anybody,” Nevin said. “You watch him throw in the outfield, he throws better than anybody. He threw 95, 96 in high school. You watch him field balls in the outfield. You watch him run the bases, he’s in the elite category in all those levels.”

Adell and the Angels have learned that all the talent in the world will not guarantee big league success. 2024 represents his fifth year in the majors, and it seems adjustments made in the winter, plus a brand new coaching staff, might finally help Adell breakout and realize his full potential.

A Jo Adell Breakout Season is Years in the Making

Adell entered 2024 with just over 600 career plate appearances in the majors. The results, a .214 average, .625 OPS and a strikeout rate over 35 percent, have been disappointing. However, there’s a belief in baseball that a young player needs around 1,000 plate appearances to truly show what he’ll be. This means that the 25-year-old still has time to adapt and grow in the bigs, but time is quickly running out.

It’s likely that the Angels hiring Ron Washington as manager took place at the perfect time for Adell. Washington possesses a reputation for improving players and helping elevate their game. Adell has the talent and potential for greatness, but might have needed Washington’s guidance in order to breakout.

Offseason Adjustments

Adell worked this winter on making more contact and using the whole field. Before this season, his career pull rate was 43.8 percent while his strikeout rate was 35.4 percent. Plus, his career average with two strikes was .149.

Though it’s a small sample size, Adell has greatly improved in these categories this season. His pull rate is down to 27.5 percent, his strikeout rate is a barely above league-average 23.2 percent, while his two-strike batting average is .228 (5 for 22).

Evaluators drool over Adell’s raw power, speed, and athleticism. However, he couldn’t tap into any of those skills with his pull-heavy, over-swinging, strikeout-prone approach. This season, he has made an effort to be more relaxed and disciplined at the plate.

Rather than focusing on selling out for the homer, Adell is taking the opportunities that pitchers and defense are giving him. He told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he is focused on using a shorter swing and hitting the ball up the middle. Putting the ball in play more will allow him to get the most out of his raw power and/or use his speed to take extra bases.

He no longer has to sell out to the pull home run. He is strong enough to hit bombs all over the diamond. Plus, his speed can turn singles into doubles, and groundouts into singles. His elite athleticism and skills are best utilized when he puts the ball in play. Adell not taking contact or getting on base prevented a major league breakout despite his great minor league success.

Adell’s overall baseline stats show his adjustments are paying off. He enters the weekend hitting .316/.372/.553 with two homers. As the season’s gone on, Adell’s play earned him increased playing time and has been a bright spot in a struggling Angels offense.

Can Adell Keep It Up?

Adell is not the first player to seemingly breakout in April, then revert back to old struggles. Pitchers around the league will make adjustments and expose his weaknesses. In return, Adell will have to make counter adjustments.

But for now, it’s fair to look at Adell’s underlying metrics and get a sense of how he’s had success. Per Statcast, Adell has produced great Barrel, Sweet Spot, and Hard-Hit percentages this season. These rates indicate his success at making solid and ideal contact. In other words, his batted balls are hit with great exit velocity and ideal launch angle. His solid xWOBA is another metric that backs this up.

However, it’s interesting that Adell grades poorly with his 86.6 mph Average Exit Velocity. If he’s making solid contact, as shown above, wouldn’t his Average Exit Velocity be higher?

In this situation, it’s likely that Adell is making great contact in certain situations, like against certain pitches or in certain parts of the zone. When the pitch does not meet his ideal situations, he might produce weak contact.

One possible example this season could be pitch location. Adell is making good contact with pitches in the middle portion of the plate. However, he has not had success with pitches thrown middle-in or away.

It’s likely that pitchers will utilize these parts of the zone more often. Adell must make sure he makes the right adjustments, whether it’s laying off pitches or adjusting his swing in certain situations, to avoid being overmatched.

Fortunately for him, Washington might be the perfect manager to help him through his early career struggles.

Main Photo Credits: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

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