Sean McVay is too good of a coach to win Coach of the Year

If the Rams were being coached by anybody else, that person would probably be Coach of the Year

If Sean McVay had left the Los Angeles Rams after going 5-12 last season, then a different coach hired to replace him had led the team to the exact 8-7 record they have right now, would that coach be the frontrunner for NFL Coach of the Year?

I believe there’s a good chance that this hypothetical coach would be getting a lot more credit for turning around the Rams than what McVay is getting. It’s the age old problem with the Coach of the Year award: In order to be considered good, your team has to be considered bad. Or at least, bad before you got there.

But the L.A. Rams were bad in 2022, they went 5-12. Then they stripped the roster down and loaded it with rookies and veterans that lacked experience or had proven to be upgrades. Players like Demarcus Robinson, Kevin Dotson, and Ahkello Witherspoon. Rookies like Puka Nacua, Steve Avila, Byron Young, and Kobie Turner.

When McVay replaced Jeff Fisher and turned a 4-12 team into 11-5, he won Coach of the Year in a landslide. Now that McVay is following McVay, a similar turnaround, if not a more impressive one, doesn’t get the Rams head coach anywhere with the public.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, McVay only has the ninth-best odds to win Coach of the Year. The top-three are Dan Campbell, Shane Steichen, and Demeco Ryans. Because they’re good coaches? Partially. But all are helped by the fact that their teams had low expectations based on the past, not entirely based on what has happened during the 2023 season.

Other than Comeback Player of the Year, Coach of the Year is the only other award that have an obvious agenda to consider the previous season’s accomplishments. Except that Comeback Player of the Year is supposed to do that.

Should Coach of the Year be held to the same standards?

McVay won Coach of the Year in 2017 but he hasn’t gotten a single vote since even though he became the most popular coach in the league for teams to poach his assistants from the Rams. He couldn’t get any consideration in 2021, despite coaching the Rams to a Super Bowl championship, because L.A. was “expected” to be good.

Well, why were they expected to be good?

It had something to do with McVay, right? A lot more than something.

If Raheem Morris had replaced McVay in February and the Rams were exactly the same as they are now—same record, same points, same wins and losses, same roster—he could be the frontrunner for Coach of the Year. Especially as the L.A. Rams have won five of six and are arguably the hottest offense in the NFL.

But Morris isn’t the coach, McVay is, and he’s got something to do with that offense and the Rams surprising push to make the playoffs a year after going 5-12.

There are many interesting coaches who could win Coach of the Year and notably none of them are Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, John Harbaugh, or McVay. Instead, fans and voters want to give it to coaches and teams who hadn’t proven anything before…like Matt Nagy. Jason Garrett. And Brian Daboll.

Because that works well.