— LakerTom (@LakerTom) September 11, 2023
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Having said all that, Hachimura is the team’s starting small forward. He’s coming off a stellar playoff run in which he established himself as part of the Lakers’ future core, averaging 12.2 points per game on a 66.8 true shooting percentage while making 48.7 percent of his 3s. With the Lakers paying him about $17 million annually, and Hachimura providing the best blend of offense and defense among the non-James/Davis frontcourt options, he’s the player tasked with handling the primary wing assignments. Recent pictures of Hachimura at the Lakers’ training facility indicate he’s slimmed down in preparation for spending more time as a wing on next season’s roster.
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Vanderbilt is the greatest casualty of the Wood signing. There are only 144 minutes available across the three frontcourt spots and just 96 at power forward and center, the natural offensive positions for Vanderbilt considering his shooting limitations. Unless Vanderbilt can take a giant leap as a shooter, or the Lakers’ perimeter defense is so porous that they need him regardless of how teams increasingly ignore him, he appears to be on the outskirts of the rotation.
That’s especially likely because, in an unsurprising development, Davis wants to play more power forward next season, according to multiple team sources. Both Davis and the Lakers believe there are clear benefits to him enduring less of a physical burden in the regular season. Davis played 99 percent of his minutes at center last season and 76 percent at center the season before, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Lakers vice president of basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka considers the team’s superstars as stakeholders in the organization and routinely consults James and Davis on notable personnel moves and the direction of the roster. Davis is still expected to start and close games at center, but his percentage of time he spends there should be more akin to the 2021-22 season. ESPN was first to report Davis’ preference.
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Wood immediately slots in as the backup center behind Davis. The two centers will likely play most, if not all, of the 48 available minutes at the five, with a smaller player (James, Hachimura) or Hayes occasionally playing in certain matchups and blowouts. (He’ll also get minutes when Davis inevitably misses time due to injury).
Perhaps this projection is too pessimistic with Hayes’ role. But aside from when Davis is out, where exactly are the minutes? Is he going to replace Vanderbilt? Is Hachimura going to have his minutes slashed? Maybe Prince?
I just don’t see a realistic scenario for Hayes to get rotation minutes with a full roster. He’s clearly behind Davis, James, Hachimura, Wood, Prince and Vanderbilt in the frontcourt pecking order. Wood basically assumes all of Hayes’ minutes (10 in the previous forecast) and half of Vanderbilt’s minutes. Finding minutes for Hayes would come at the expense of Hachimura, Prince and/or Vanderbilt — a cost that, when factoring in the team’s basic needs of shooting and perimeter defense around James and Davis, doesn’t make sense.
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There are legitimate questions about how Wood and Hayes will fit in the Lakers’ defensive scheme and next to Davis. Both are better at defending on the perimeter and in switching schemes than banging in the post and acting as the last line of defense. If the Lakers continue to just have Davis do those things, then the double-center approach will be somewhat moot. This is one of the bigger storylines to monitor in training camp and the preseason.