We are at the point in the offseason where summer league is done and teams are, well, they’re all just sitting there. Most player movement and big deals happen up to or during summer league. Not a hard rule and of course trades or signings are likely to continue all the way until camp starts but the generally the big splashes and names have already been handled at this point. Not this season. Since Mongo said he was going fishing we’re going with that theme for this 5er.
- Seismic shifts making waves. I wrote at the beginning of the Lakers summer while the playoffs were all but done (maybe just after, hard to recall…) that it would take some seismic shifts in the NBA to shake a Russell Westbrook trade loose. Well, that happened alright. After Kyrie opted into his deal everyone thought the Nets were set to start building out the roster-oh wait Kevin Durant asked for a trade. Boom. Then the Jazz traded Gobert to Minny for a King’s ransom. Blammo. Then they put Donovan Mitchell sorta kinda maybe on the trading block for a double King’s ransom. Kablooey. Those were the kinds of things I thought would have to happen for a Russ trade to have a sliver of hope.
- Bait’s in the water but nothing’s biting. Durant is till a Net. So is Kyrie. Mitchell’s market is robust but the ask is pretty danged high (as it should be a star on the rise who is only 25). All these bombs dropped but very little shook loose. In fact the opposite happened, everything kind of just froze up and locked in place. Utah is asking for 7 (!) first round draft picks for Spyda. The Nets want a Gobert-esque haul for KD. They’re holding out hope of squeezing two 1st rounders from LA to lose Kyrie…maybe…or they want to keep him, hard to tell. Teams around the league have started filling out the back end of their rosters, except the Spurs who can afford to wait. There are a grip of un-signed free agents of impact and with summer league over there will likely be a lull of a couple weeks before things maybe heat up again prior to camp starting.
- Big Fish still out there. Russell is still a Laker. Listen to Darvin Ham and he seems intent on making it work. Like many of the Laker statements these days that should come with a “well what else is he supposed to say?” caveat. Darvin will have to make it work with whatever roster he inherits from Rob. The Lakers though are seemingly polarized into inaction by caution. Is LeBron going to sign that extension on 8/4? That’s the Big Fish question and everything is dictated by how that breaks. Personally I actually don’t see any big moves happening until that day because it is at that time LeBron can comment on what he wants in order to make that happen. That’s 22 days away. Time enough for executives to go on vacation and come back. Camp starts in September-ish, between LeBron’s date and then there will be time enough to get a deal done, should a deal be found.
- Cut bait and run? What are the 2027 and 2029 Laker 1st round draft picks truly worth? Remember they’re not the only picks we have access to, the other ones just can’t be traded until draft night of their respective summers. Or, crazy idea here, we could actually pick some young players with them! Regardless the Lakers will actually have one of either next or the following summer’s draft pick (based on what NOLA does). Get into it here. So, knowing that there will be pathways forward to draft young talent it’s curious to see the Lakers hold the line so staunchly regarding those 2 picks. There are two theories I have: one the Lakers realize how they have frittered away draft assets in pursuit of ill-fitting veterans and have chosen to stop doing that, Jeannie has clipped Rob’ wings a little bit…at least for now until we hear from The King. My guess is the second one. I think, for good or ill, Jeannie is asserting herself a little more. I don’t think the Lakers will trade those away without a firm commitment from LeBron. That’s smart, in my opinion. Everyone is saying all sorts of nice things but we’re talking about the same guy that left Cleveland in spectacular fashion on live TV, Miami without much notice and is now obligated to remain quiet until 8/4. This feels to many like a time to rush forward and do whatever one thinks may please LeBron. I am not one of those people. The Lakers have to do right by the Lakers and that means taking all the factors into consideration. LeBron is under contract next season and can sign an extension any time. He won’t demand a trade (or if so will look pretty silly doing so) and we won’t trade him (Jeannie has said as much up to this point saying even he doesn’t sign his extension they won’t consider trading him). James can’t say what he wants right now. So waiting is prudent if not really all that exciting.
- The one that got away? With the news that the Indy deal is “dead” some panic may begin to creep into those who see a trade of Westbrook as the only way forward. First off no deal is dead until the players on said team aren’t on the team, have no-trade clauses, or veto rights. So it’s just dead for the time being because everyone is moving on for a few weeks. LeBron’s date is the key to everything. It opens all the doors for what he might want in this moment, allows him to voice his opinion and provide the information the Lakers obviously feel like they need to move forward. Is that smart? I don’t know. I think that it would probably be better for the Lakers to trade Russ one way or the other, if they can, but I am also of the opinion that you can’t so heavily sabotage the future to do so. Yes, they’re only 2 draft picks but they’re likely to be decent as neither AD or LeBron are likely to be on the team by then. By that logic they’re the two most valuable for the Lakers. That they represent the best chances to rebuild prior to 2030. I have to applaud the Lakers stance tis summer as it’s one I’ve long wanted them to adopt: open for business but we’re not suckers and we don’t throw draft picks away like it’s a fire sale. Cost-controlled players who re top ten picks can be franchise altering. If you’re not getting back a sure-fire banner competing team for them you’re doing yourself wrong by tossing them away. Buddy Heild is not that player, nether is Myles Turner. Frankly, given the fact he’s only averaged 55 games/season for his career, neither is Kyrie Irving. There’s still plenty of time, as well. A lot could change internally for all parties involved. The Nets could decide running it back as-is is preferable. The Pacers seem to want both for two decent players but that doesn’t change the fact that one of those players is injury prone (Myles Turner who has played in fewer than 50 games the past two seasons) and a defensive sieve in Buddy. Sorry but that deal is just not worth both of those draft picks.
In the end desperation is a bad look for anyone at the bargaining table. The Lakers have done a decent job of holding the line on what assets they have. That’s smart and a nice change to see happening after the last 3 summers where we threw good players at bad along with draft picks all in the name of silly tweaks to a roster that won it all. For all those moves we’ve made we basically have fewer draft picks and Russell Westbrook to show for it. That’s not really a track record of success. Where the Lakers do have a track record of success is in the draft and so I like that they are realizing where their strengths and weaknesses lie. That may not sync up with LeBron’s timeline. If so, so be it. That’s the nature of the NBA and LeBron will either be here or he won’t. One way or another the games will be played.
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