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Can the Clippers Trade for Bradley Beal?
The big NBA news yesterday was the reporting that the Wizards and Bradley Beal are considering trade opportunities. Beal has been in rumors for years, but this is the first time something close to concrete is out there that he really might be on the move. The question for Clippers fans is – can the Clippers trade for Bradley Beal? And the follow-up: should they trade for Beal?
Can the Clippers Trade for Bradley Beal?
The short answer is yes. The medium answer is that it depends on what the Wizards want in return. The long answer is yes, but that it is convoluted enough to be unlikely. Let’s break it down a bit.
Bradley Beal will make $46.7M in the 2023-2024 season. The Clippers can get to that number easily with a few of their expiring contracts, but it’s not so simple. After trying trades through ESPN Trade Machine and Real GM trade checker, due to various rules about the tax as well as Beal’s 15% trade kicker, the Clippers would need to be sending out well over that $46.7M in salary. The issue then becomes the Wizards being able to eat all of that salary. The solution is to make the deal a three-teamer, with a team with tons of cap space (like the Spurs or Rockets) eating up some of the Clippers’ outgoing salary. An example of a trade that seemingly passes the CBA would look like this:
Clippers Receive: Bradley Beal
Wizards Receive: Eric Gordon, Marcus Morris, Brandon Boston Jr., and Jason Preston
Spurs Receive: Robert Covington, Amir Coffey
There would need to be other elements as well, as all teams need to “touch” each other in multiple team deals, so the Spurs would have to send something to the Wizards and vice versa, though it could be as minor as a highly protected pick or rights to an international player who isn’t ever going to come over. The Clippers would also need to send some kinds of assets (presumably minor ones) to the Spurs for the trouble of taking on the salary. This trade could also be adjusted to include Norm Powell instead of a couple of the other Clippers, but I doubt the Wizards would want to take on his long-term salary.
Before talking about the Clippers’ side of this, let’s discuss the Wizards. This seems like a shockingly low return for a player of Beal’s caliber – two aging veterans, one decent prospect, and one fringe prospect. To be clear, this probably wouldn’t be enough. I think the Clippers would have to attach at least one future first, though I think they could get away with it being lottery protected or at worst top-8 protected. Even that doesn’t seem like much of a return, because it isn’t.
However, Bradley Beal has all the cards here. He has a no-trade clause, which means that he can veto any trade the Wizards put forth – he can determine where he goes. If he wants to go to a contender, that limits his options considerably, and the Clippers are undoubtedly still in those ranks despite a disappointing 2023 season.
Additionally, Beal’s contract is onerous, and all the reporting from Washington is that they want to start a rebuild. Eric Gordon is old and mediocre and Marcus Morris is old and bad, but both guys are on expiring deals, meaning the Wizards get out of Beal’s long-term money, take the 2024 season to get a high draft pick, open up space for next summer, and add in two young prospects and a pick. Maybe it still isn’t enough, but this package probably isn’t quite as laughable as it seems. Because of Beal’s no-trade clause, he and his desired team(s) hold the cards, so the Wizards won’t be able to really get much of a bidding war going. For now, let’s just assume this package, or one like it, will be enough to get in the running.
Should the Clippers Trade for Bradley Beal?
Before diving into the specifics of the deal for the Clippers, let’s look at Bradley Beal. Beal is turning 30 in a couple weeks (makes me feel old), is under contract for the next four seasons at around $200M total, and last made an All-Star team in 2021. Beal has averaged at least 22.5 points per game each season for the last seven years, making him legitimately one of the most consistent high-volume scorers in the NBA. Beal’s scoring is also usually highly efficient (with 2022 being an exception) due to his combination of high-volume three-point shooting, free throw attempts, and scoring ability at all three levels. Beal is also a decent rebounder for his size, and is averaging over 5.5 assists per game across his last five seasons.
It’s not all sunshine and roses on the court, even leaving
aside the contract. Beal’s a below average defender despite decent size and
strength, and he’s not likely to get much better as he enters his 30s, though
he could improve due to having less on his offensive plate. He’s also fairly
turnover-prone, with an assist to turnover ratio that usually hovers around
1.5:1 – not awful, but not ideal either. However, worst of all for the Clippers
are the availability issues. After three iron man seasons from 2017 to 2019, Beal
has played in 57, 60, 40, and 50 games over the past four seasons. Even counting
the fact that the Wizards more or less rested him down the stretch in several
of those, and that two were shortened due to COVID, that’s not great. The
Clippers are injury prone as is without another star who gets hurt frequently.
Now let’s look at the Clippers’ side of things. They have
clearly needed a true 3rd option after Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
Beal answers that. The Clippers specifically have missed consistent scoring and
playmaking from other players on their roster since Lou Williams began to age
out. Beal answers that. The Clippers, especially last year, looked old and slow
and needed athleticism. Beal does not answer that. The Clippers also have too
much depth and must consolidate their roster to solidify roles. Any Beal trade
would accomplish that. Beal is not a perfect fit next to Paul George and Kawhi
Leonard due to his injury-prone history and less-than-perfect playmaking. But
he’s a massive talent upgrade and would give the team some much needed “juice”.
For this deal specifically, it seems that the Clippers are trading away half their roster. But look closer. Eric Gordon is already superfluous and would be triply so with Beal. Morris was awful last year. Boston is a promising talent but hasn’t actually done anything in the NBA. Preston has some solid G-League numbers but that’s it. Losing Nic Batum and Robert Covington hurts a lot, but they’re also role players in their mid-30s. Amir Coffey is a nice rotation piece who’s in his prime, but barely played last year and isn’t much more than a 9th man. In short, this trade would gut the Clippers’ forward depth, but Beal would push Kawhi to the power forward spot anyway, so they’d just need to pick up a couple depth pieces.
Final Thoughts
I don’t really think the Clippers will trade for Bradley
Beal. Multi-team deals (which this would almost certainly have to be) are
always very complicated to pull off. Additionally, while I think the Clippers
can get to a good, maybe a very good offer for Beal, it’s doubtful they have
the best one, so Beal would need to have the Clippers top on his list (possible,
not likely). Ultimately, most iterations of a Beal-to-Clippers trade I would
do. I’d be leery of trading Terance Mann for Beal, and would be opposed to trading
multiple future 1sts unless heavily protected. Overall, Beal is a star-level
player who fits a lot of what the Clippers need and does seem like he’ll be
available, so expect at least some sniffing around by the Clippers.