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2023 NBA Draft By the Numbers: Big Men
Having already looked at point guards and wings in the 2023 NBA Draft, let’s having a look at the big men class, which is on the very thin side.
The following explanation is more or less a copy paste
explanation of the stats and methodology from previous years. The numbers I
compile for this are for college players only (no international, OTE, or
G-League players included), and are per game, not per possession. In the NBA,
per possession is a more useful stat, but when looking at college players, I
feel like playing time is a bigger component – if you can’t play in college,
you probably won’t play in the NBA. I also stopped at around number 70 on
ESPN’s prospect list, as guys below that won’t get drafted at 30 and are
unlikely to get picked even at 48. Finally, the numbers are averaged between
the last two college seasons the players played, which can hurt some guys but
can balance out outlier seasons.
Players | Age | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TOPG | FTM | 3PT | TS |
Dereck Lively II | 19.3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.662 |
Noah Clowney | 18.9 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.576 |
Trayce Jackson-Davis | 23.3 | 19.6 | 9.5 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 0 | 0.61 |
Mouhamed Gueye | 20.6 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.52 |
Colin Castleton | 23.1 | 16.1 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 0.1 | 0.569 |
Adama Sanogo | 21.3 | 16 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.589 |
Charles Bediako | 21.2 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 0 | 0.649 |
Oscar Tshiebwe | 23.6 | 16.9 | 14.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2 | 3.9 | 0 | 0.614 |
Azuolas Tubelis | 21.2 | 16.9 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 0.596 |
Drew Timme | 22.8 | 19.8 | 7.2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 0.628 |
Interestingly, nearly all of the stats listed above are relevant for big men, with points, three point makes, and free throw makes being the least important, and blocks, turnovers, and rebounds placing towards the top. All of this checks out – rebounding and rim protection usually translate well from college to the NBA, and turnovers are an incredibly important insight into decision-making and basketball instincts: Mfiondu Kabengele and Daniel Oturu give their regards. With that said, let’s take a look at a few prospects of note.
Best Prospects in Clippers’ Range
Trayce Jackson-Davis – TJD is one of the most decorated players in the history of Indiana’s storied college basketball program. Let’s start there. Despite being just 6’9, Trayce averaged 2.6 blocks across his last two seasons in college, demonstrating his athleticism, awareness, and overall defensive acumen. While he can’t shoot threes, Jackson-Davis can handle, drive, pass (4 assists per game his senior year), and finish, a rare skillset for a player of his size. He’s a fantastic defender as well, who can both defend the rim and switch out onto forwards on the perimeter. Really, he’s just great at basketball, and age (he’s over 23) and lack of size are the only real deterrents. Projected anywhere from the mid-20s to late-30s, I’d absolutely draft TJD at 30 and he’d be a ridiculous steal at 48.
Noah Clowney – One of the youngest players in the draft, the 6’10 Clowney was a big factor in Alabama’s 31-6 2023 season. A strong finisher from two-point range, Clowney’s efficiency was reduced by launching 3.3 threes per game, which he hit at just 28.3%. He was forced to the perimeter more by playing with another paint-bound big in Charles Bediako (below), so I think on an NBA team where he’s the only big he’ll play closer to the rim. Not even 19 years old, Clowney is a long-term development prospect who could be a real guy in the mid-to-late 20s, but who I can’t see the Clippers taking with their win-now roster.
Charles Bediako – The co-anchor of Alabama’s excellent 2023 team, Bediako is more of a traditional NBA center we’ve seen over the past decade-plus. A raw athletic and physical force, Bediako uses his 7’0 frame to block shots and collect rebounds. He’s not a great defensive rebounder, but is effective on the offensive glass, and is a solid finisher. There’s not much polish to Bediako, but he has the tools to be an NBA player if you’re willing to commit time to development. At 48 I think he’s a solid talent play, but I can’t see the Clippers taking him after Moussa last year.
Drew Timme – If you’ve followed college basketball over the past few years, you’ve probably seen Drew Timme, the star of a great run of Gonzaga basketball. Timme isn’t a great defender, and there’s some question about whether he’s more of a big forward or a center – or whether he can defend either role. But he’s an excellent, well-rounded offensive player who can absolutely get buckets as well as make plays for others. He measures better statistically than I personally like him as a prospect, but he’d be an ok pick at 48 or a very nice undrafted two-way guy.
Prospects to Trade Up For
Dereck Lively II – The young freshman from Duke has surged
up the draft boards due to a strong combine performance and workouts, moving
himself from possibly within a trade up (late teens or even early 20s) to the
late lottery. It’s possible he falls on draft night to a place that the
Clippers could move up for him, but if anything, it seems he’s going to be
heading the other way. He had solid production in limited minutes, an outstanding
block rate, a positive assist to turnover ratio, and has an NBA-ready frame. I
think he’ll be good.
Prospects to Avoid
Mouhamed Gueye – I don’t think Gueye is an awful prospect, but
he’s certainly not a big man I’d go with in this draft. He’s an inefficient
scorer for a big (though he does take more shots outside the paint than a lot
of these guys), a meh rebounder, and has low block and steal rates. There’s
some offensive upside there, but there are going to be better win-now and
long-term prospects available in my opinion.
International Prospects of Note
James Nnaji – An 18-year-old playing for Barcelona, which competes in the ACB and EuroLeague, Nnaji has a grown-man frame at 7’0, 250 pounds. The young Nigerian is a raw prospect, as one might expect, and at this point just does the big man basics: set screens, roll and dunk, and rebound. Still, boasting a 7’5 wingspan and plus athletic tools with speed, explosion at the rim, and overall mobility, Nnaji would be an upside-laden gamble. He will probably go in the early 20s, and I don’t think the Clippers would trade up for him, but I think that in terms of talent he’d be a good pick at 30, fit issues aside.
Tristan Vukcevic – Vukcevic is a 20-year-old, 7-foot big man playing for the famous Partizan Belgrade in the Serbian League, Adriatic League, and EuroLeague. The son of a well-known European basketball player, Tristan began his professional career playing for Real Madrid back in 2020 – he’s been around for a bit. Like most young international prospects (not named Wembanyama or Luka), Vuckevic is more of a role player, but in just 14.8 minutes per game in 22 Adriatic League games this season he averaged 8.1 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 1.0 assists on exceptional efficiency. He’s an extremely talented offensive player who has legitimate shooting touch, but is an absolute mess on defense. If he can become playable on the defensive end, he could be a massive steal in the 2nd. I think he’d be a fantastic pick at 48 and I honestly wouldn’t mind a look at 30.
I know Clippers fans are almost certainly tired of drafting
big men, but are there any that catch your eye in the 2023 draft?