With the additions of two-way player Shohei Ohtani, starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow, and outfielder Manuel Margot to the Dodgers roster, the team’s projected 2024 Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payroll is approximately $255M (Fangraphs). Considering the team continues to pursue upgrades to the starting rotation and possibly a position player, or two, the final CBT payroll could approach $297M with a tax bill in the $40M range.
Since the Dodgers have exceeded the CBT thresholds for three consecutive seasons, they are in the unenviable position as maximum taxpayers for 2024. For every payroll dollar spent between $277M and $297M, the Dodgers tax rate will be 95%. In effect, the $12M AAV for each of third baseman Max Muncy and Margot would be equivalent to $23.4M when the team tax is included for super utility player Chris Taylor, $29.25M.
(Ron Cervenka)
The Dodgers did not invest $73M in AAV for Ohtani and Glasnow with the intent of being frugal as they fill out the remainder of the roster. Free Agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto alone could add another $25M to $30M to the payroll. Taxes will not deter the organizational pursuit of the 2024 World Championship, but the Dodgers executives are very sharp businesspeople who will not foolishly spend money.
So, there may be some tough roster decisions looming for Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and General Manager Brandon Gomes:
- Will they look for less expensive roster options than Margot, Muncy, and Taylor?
- Will they retain the veterans and use the top prospects to further strengthen the roster?
- Are Michael Busch and Miguel Vargas ready to be everyday players at third base or the outfield?
- Will outfielder Andy Pages and/or infielder Trey Sweeney be ready to contribute after the 2024 All Star break?
Friedman recently said of utility infielder/designated hitter Busch: “He showed very clearly that he doesn’t belong in Triple A, that he’s a major-league player.” Whether Busch will be a major league player for the Dodgers, or another team is to be determined.
Will the Dodgers trade Muncy and rely on Busch or Vargas at third base?
Not likely, but never say never.
Muncy would be a desirable trade target for the Toronto Blue Jays who lost third baseman Matt Chapman to free agency and are searching for a left-handed power hitter. The ideal trade for the Dodgers would be Muncy and Gavin Lux for shortstop Bo Bichette. First reaction is that Blue Jays say no, but a closer look at stats and contract length makes this a good deal for both teams.
One intriguing player who has regularly been mentioned as a Dodgers trade target is Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds. The Pirates have continued to rebuff trade efforts for Reynolds, signing him to a very team friendly contract ($13.3M) through 2030. Could this be the year that the Dodgers make an offer for the All-Star outfielder that the Pirates cannot refuse? If Vargas is not going to supplant Muncy at third base or be the Dodgers regular left fielder, then including him in a package with Andy Pages, and pitchers Michael Grove and pitching prospect Gavin Stone might put Reynolds in Dodgers Blue.
Vargas and Stone could also be the key pieces in a trade with the Washington Nationals for right-handed hitting outfielder Lane Thomas, who consistently crushes southpaw pitching.
What changes to the roster will the Dodgers make in the coming weeks? To be determined.
What trades do you think the team should make before the start of Spring Training?
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