Digging deeper into the process of the 23-year-old Japanese right-hander making the jump to Major League Baseball this offseason
Roki Sasaki getting posted this offseason is one of the largest stories in MLB this winter. It’s not often that someone with his talent, that young (having just turned 23 years old), not only becomes available, but also that it won’t cost anywhere close to nine figures to sign him.
Sasaki is good even as is, after he put up a 2.35 ERA with 129 strikeouts and 32 walks in his 18 starts this season for Chiba Lotte in Japan. Eno Sarris at The Athletic had high praise for Sasaki’s strikeout-minus-walk rate in Japan (26.7 percent career, 21.6 percent in 2024) even with a decline in stuff this season. From Sarris:
The eye of the beholder will have an outsized say in the negotiations. Either Sasaki is an oft-injured pitcher with already declining stuff, or he’s got some of the best stuff we’ve seen from a pitcher coming over even after that decline. Given the nature of the contract negotiations, a team that convinces Sasaki that they can help him get back to 2022 in terms of health and stuff might be the team that seals the deal.
Sasaki as it is ranks third among the top free agents this offseason at The Athletic, behind only Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes.
Kiley McDaniel at ESPN ranks Sasaki as the second-best free agent this winter, saying this about the right-hander:
Sasaki is heavily rumored to prefer the Dodgers for all the reasons Yamamoto was presumed to: West Coast, loaded team, Japanese teammates, top-notch development, major market, etc. In a world where the amount of money each team can offer is a secondary concern, this becomes a college-style recruiting pitch, rather than the typical free agency bidding war, and the Dodgers might have the best pitch in baseball.
Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com outlines when and how the signing process for Sasaki will go:
Depending on when he is officially signed, his contract would fall under either the 2024 international signing period, which ends on Dec. 15, or the 2025 period, which opens on Jan. 15. If he’s posted before Dec. 2, he could only sign during the 2024 period since the 45-day negotiating window would expire before the ‘25 signing period begins. If he were to be posted between Dec. 2-15, he could sign during either period, though he’d only have until Dec. 15 to negotiate a deal for the ‘24 period.
The Dodgers have just over $2.5 million left in this signing period, the most of any team. They will have the smallest bonus pool for the 2025 period, which starts on January 15, partly because they lost $1 million in international spending power by signing Shohei Ohtani last winter.
Whatever Sasaki gets, it will be tiny compared to a true free agency and open market. J.J. Cooper at Baseball America laid out all the various potential ways to get around the international bonus pool limits, noting that MLB and the collective bargaining agreement is clear in preventing a workaround of the system in place.
On more from Cooper at BA, noting how if Sasaki wins Rookie of the Year, or if he finishes in the top three in Cy Young voting prior to reaching free agency, he’d net his team an extra draft pick after the first round. That represents another potential boon for the team lucky enough to sign Sasaki, aside from getting such a highly-regarded player for a relative pittance.
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