Once posted to MLB (no later than December 15), the Japanese right-hander will have 45 days to sign with a team. The 2025 international period begins on January 15.
At the MLB owners meetings in New York on Wednesday, commissioner Rob Manfred said it was more likely that prized Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki would sign during the 2025 international signing period, which begins on January 15, rather than the current 2024 period which ends on December 15.
“It kind of looks like the way it’s going to shake out, that the signing there, just because the timing, will happen in the new pool period,” Manfred told reporters during a news conference, per Ronald Blum at Associated Press.
Sasaki’s NPB team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, announced on November 9 that they plan to post the 23-year-old right-hander to Major League Baseball. Per the working agreement between the two leagues, a player must be posted between November 1 and December 15, and MLB teams would then have 45 days from the posting date to sign the player.
For Sasaki to be eligible for the 2025 period, he’d have to be posted between December 1-15.
The Dodgers have the most money remaining of any MLB team during the 2024 international period, a reported $2.5 million, and for the 2025 period they are tied for the lowest bonus pool of $5,146,200, which was reduced by $1 million for signing qualifying-offer free agent Shohei Ohtani last December.
The top bonus pools for the 2025 period are $7,555,500. Teams could theoretically trade for bonus pool space up to 60 percent of its existing pool, so the theoretical maximum bonus pool is roughly $12.1 million. Sasaki signing for a team’s entire bonus pool would likely require several broken verbal deals that were made months or sometimes years ago, causing a bit of a mess.
From Sasaki’s perspective, he’s already signing for well more than $100 million less than his market value by not waiting two more years to be a true free agent like Yoshinobu Yamamoto last offseason. So going from a $2.5 million signing bonus (plus three years of near-minimum salaries before qualifying for arbitration) to up to $12.1 million would be a boon, but only relatively a small difference considering what the pitcher is already giving up.
The Chiba Lotte Marines have little choice but to wait for the 2025 period because they get a posting fee equal to 20 percent of Sasaki’s signing bonus and that’s it. So it’s maxing out at $500,000 during the 2024 period to potentially getting $1.51 million (from a team’s full $7,555,500 bonus pool) or up to $2.4 million if an MLB team moves heaven and earth with trades to max out its bonus pool.
This will be a choice more about fit for Sasaki than money, at least in terms of his initial signing bonus. The Dodgers have long been rumored to sign Sasaki, so much so that some within the industry believe there is already a handshake deal in place. Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, was compelled enough to comment on said rumors to Evan Drellich at The Athletic:
Executives have brought some of those rumors, at least informally, to the commissioner’s office, and Dodgers higher-ups have heard them as well, according to people briefed on the discourse who were not authorized to speak publicly.
Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, denied the allegation on Wednesday, hours after commissioner Rob Manfred also tried to quell the topic.
“While a bunch of executives who should know me better and do a lot of business with me insult my integrity by insinuating that I would be a part of some type of nefarious agreement,” Wolfe told The Athletic, “in reality, this is just poor sportsmanship.”